Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 螺纹钢: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - 热轧卷板: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - 铁矿石: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Energy Supply for Heating Season: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - New Energy Vehicle Sales: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - Anti - Dumping Ruling: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel Products: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - Steel Inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].
钢材、铁矿石日报：现实担忧发酵，钢矿震荡运行-20251111
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-11 09:23