有色日报：有色冲高回落-20251111

Overall Information - Report title: "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report" [1][2][5] - Report date: November 11, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: Shanghai copper opened higher and then fell back, maintaining a volatile trend during the day with little change in open interest. The recent decline of the US dollar index and the agreement in the US Senate to end the government shutdown have boosted market risk appetite. The spot premium has rebounded. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 87,000 yuan mark [6]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell back, with a weak intraday oscillation and open interest increasing first and then decreasing. The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. As aluminum prices rise, downstream purchasing willingness has declined. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - Nickel: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with open interest increasing when prices fell and decreasing when prices rebounded. The weak industry continues to put pressure on nickel prices, and nickel prices have not recovered above the 120,000 yuan mark even when the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively strong. Continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 yuan level [8]. Industry Dynamics - Copper: According to Cochilco data, Codelco's copper production in September decreased by 7% month-on-month to 115,600 tons. On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [10]. - Aluminum: On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [11]. - Nickel: On November 11, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. Related Charts Copper - Base difference: Chart 1 shows the copper base difference [13]. - Domestic visible inventory: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [14]. - LME cancelled warrant ratio: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15]. - Overseas exchange inventory: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - SHFE warrant inventory: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - Base difference: Chart 7 shows the aluminum base difference [24]. - Monthly spread: Chart 8 shows the aluminum monthly spread [30]. - Domestic social inventory: Chart 9 shows the electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26]. - SHFE - LME ratio: Chart 11 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - Overseas exchange inventory: Chart 10 shows the electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32]. - Aluminum rod inventory: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - Base difference: Chart shows the nickel base difference [38]. - LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio: Chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [40]. - LME nickel trend: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [41]. - SHFE inventory: Chart 16 shows the SHFE nickel inventory [43]. - Monthly spread: Chart shows the nickel monthly spread [45]. - Nickel ore port inventory: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].