宏观驱动，市场风险偏好提升

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The news that the US government is about to end the shutdown and the friendly trade between China and the US have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a slightly stronger upward trend in Shanghai copper futures. However, attention should be paid to the release of economic data after the government resumes operations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and trended lower, with a slightly stronger upward trend during intraday trading. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude refining capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the expected maintenance impact is 48,000 tons. The operating rate of copper concentrate smelters is 85.4%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period; the operating rate of smelters mainly using scrap copper or anode copper is 63.3%, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Affected by Document No. 770, the procurement of anode copper is still affected, but after the policies in some regions become clear, the operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that the supply of scrap copper will increase in the future to make up for the tight supply of copper ore. Last week, the copper price decreased compared to the previous period, and the price reduction led to an increase in the purchasing volume of downstream enterprises. However, the peak season this year was not as good as in previous years and has basically ended. The short - term increase in purchasing due to the price correction has not reversed the weak demand of downstream enterprises. The operating rate of downstream copper products has decreased compared to the previous period, and the performance of traditional terminal industries is average. Since the end of October, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing. As of November 7, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 43,400 tons, a 9.28% increase from the previous week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and trended higher, then declined during intraday trading. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is - 20 yuan/ton. On November 10, 2025, the LME official price was 10,815 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 315 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 10, the spot crude refining fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory is 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,817 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, an increase of 1,425 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 372,300 short tons, an increase of 2,950 short tons from the previous period [11]