PVC日报：震荡下行-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months until December 24, 2025. The price quoted by Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in November has been reduced by $30 - 40 per ton. India has raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton, weakening the export expectations of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. Traders are starting to wait and see, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are in operation, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract increased in positions while oscillating downward, with a minimum price of 4,570 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,613 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 4,572 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.74%. The position volume increased by 63,608 lots to 1,407,131 lots [2] Basis - On November 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,520 yuan per ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,572 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 52 yuan per ton, weakening by 2 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply Side - The production of devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Inner Mongolia Yili has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons, are in different stages of operation [4] Demand Side - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the new residential construction area decreased by 18.3%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; the residential completion area decreased by 18.3%. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of November 6, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, a 26.42% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]