银河期货白糖日报-20251111

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2][3] - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. With Brazil's sugar production at a historically high level, a downward shift in the support from ethanol to sugar due to Brazil's oil price cut, and potentially higher-than-expected sugar exports from India, the fundamental situation of raw sugar is weak, and the long - term trend is downward [11]. - Domestically, in the short term, the expected increase in sugar production and the significant drop in international sugar prices, along with the start of the domestic sugar - crushing season, lead to increasing supply and sales pressure. However, due to tightened imports of syrup and premixed powder and relatively high previous point - pricing costs, the domestic sugar production cost is high, providing some support to the futures price. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the long run, the price will still be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [12]. Summary by Section Part 1: Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,403 with a 0.09% increase; SR01 closed at 5,475 with a 0.33% increase; SR05 closed at 5,405 with a 0.15% increase. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed accordingly [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan were reported. The price in Liuzhou increased by 30 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spreads were also calculated [6]. - Import Profit: The import profit from Brazil and Thailand was analyzed. The quota - free and in - quota import prices and their spreads with domestic prices were presented [6]. Part 2: Market Judgment - Important Information: An analyst survey predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October would be 29.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and the sugar production would be 1.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first week of November were 685,700 tons, with an average daily export volume 23% lower than that in November last year. China adjusted its sugar supply - demand data for the 2024/25 season, reducing sugar imports by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons. The predicted sugar production for the 2025/26 season was 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous month's prediction, and consumption was predicted to be 15.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons [8][9]. - Logical Analysis: Globally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugarcane and sugar production in the central - southern region and the whole country were reported, with sugar production slightly higher than previous estimates. India's 2025/26 sugar production was estimated, and the government allowed 150,000 tons of sugar exports. Domestically, short - term supply pressure is increasing, but high production costs provide support, and long - term prices are affected by the international market [11][12]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, the international sugar price is in an oscillating adjustment, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to operate within a range, selling high and buying low. For arbitrage, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14][15]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing data such as monthly inventories, sales - to - production ratios, spot prices, price spreads, and basis in Guangxi and Yunnan [17][18][22]