棉花、棉纱日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Considering the optimistic results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected that cotton will be slightly stronger in the short - term and fluctuate mainly [6]. - It is predicted that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 20, and the CY01 contract decreased by 10, while the CY05 and CY09 contracts remained unchanged. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts increased. For example, the trading volume of the CF01 contract decreased by 60,717, and the open interest increased by 3,733 [2]. - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the price of Cot A was 75.20 cents/pound. The prices of some products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber changed. For example, the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - Spread: In the cotton and cotton yarn markets, there are various spreads. For example, the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,295, up 10; the 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,572, up 118 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: In Changji City, the cotton planting area is 520,000 mu, with an expected seed cotton yield of 247,000 tons and a total output value of 1.8 billion yuan. As of now, more than 140,000 tons of seed cotton have been purchased. The Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index remained flat on November 11, and the China Cotton Price Index decreased slightly [4][5]. - Trading Logic: Considering the supply and demand situation and the optimistic results of Sino - US trade negotiations, it is expected that cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The production of cotton fabric factories continues, and spring and summer orders are gradually received. The spot sales of cotton fabric are slow, and the market competition is fierce. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and the prices are gradually unified. The inventory of some spinning mills is low, while some are starting to accumulate inventory [9]. 3.3 Options - Option Data: On November 10, 2025, for options such as CF601C13400.CZC, the closing price was 240, down 5.5%. The implied volatilities of different options varied, with CF601 - C - 13400 at 7.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 at 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 at 15.2%. The 30 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly [11]. - Option Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the internal and external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of different months of cotton, the spread between cotton yarn and cotton futures, and the spread between different months of cotton futures, which visually show the price trends and relationships in the cotton and cotton yarn markets [15][18][22]