银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251111

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the number of laying hens in production remains at a high level. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gradual in the short term. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, while the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside potential is expected to be relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3373, down 10 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3577, up 72; JD09 closed at 3881, up 25 [2]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was -204, down 82; the 05 - 09 spread was -304, up 47; the 09 - 01 spread was 508, up 35 [2]. - Ratio: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.03; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, up 0.01. The 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.26, up 0.02; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.31, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. The national mainstream prices showed a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Cost: The average cost of corn was 2252 yuan, up 8 yuan; the average cost of soybean meal was 3080 yuan, unchanged; the average cost of laying - hen compound feed was 2.50 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. - Income: The average price of culled chickens was 4.02 yuan, up 0.02 yuan; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying - hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profit: The profit per laying hen was 4.34 yuan, down 0.60 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Supply: In October, the number of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The monthly output of chicks in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The number of culled chickens in the week of November 6 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Demand: As of November 6, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas nationwide was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Single - sided: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].