银河期货农产品日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Apple fundamentals are strong, with recent spot prices rising. It is advisable to consider going long on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 6.94, down 0.22 from the previous trading day. Various apple varieties' prices in different regions are stable [2] - Futures Prices: AP01 is at 9229, up 70 from the previous close; AP05 is at 9289, up 29; AP10 is at 8386, up 29 [2] - Basis: The basis data shows different values and changes, such as AP01 - AP05 is -60, up 41 from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - Apple Market News - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 10.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. The export volume in September 2025 was about 7.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [5] - The apple market in the producing areas is generally stable. In Shandong, the acquisition is still ongoing, and cold storage warehousing is approaching the end. In the northwest, the off - storage transactions are basically over, and the cold storage transactions of farmers' apples have begun. The current in - storage transaction price is higher than the off - storage acquisition price. There are many cold storage procurement merchants in Gansu recently [5] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia is 0.4 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [6] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi is stable, with the 70 and above semi - commercial apples having a mainstream transaction price of 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. Cold storage transactions have started [6] - Trading Logic: This year, apple production has decreased, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and storage is more difficult. Market expectations are that the cold storage warehousing data will likely be low. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory is 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the effective inventory will likely be low [7] - Trading Strategy - Single - side: Consider going long on dips due to the strong apple fundamentals and recent rising spot prices [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - There are multiple charts including the prices of different apple varieties, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in wholesale markets, and 6 - fruit prices, as well as national cold storage apple inventory and outbound volume [12][13][14]