油脂产业周报：近月油脂维持震荡，远月价格仍有望上行-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the final US energy policy to boost the oil market and further news on Indonesia's B50. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Due to palm oil entering the production - reduction season and the early arrival of Ramadan in Southeast Asia next year, there may be an opportunity to go long on the far - month P05. At the same time, the short - term support for rapeseed oil and soybean oil is more obvious, and it is advisable to continue to be bullish on the widening of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [1][2]. - The future oil market will mainly focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation volume, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil producing areas, and the smooth arrival of US soybeans and the progress of China - Canada relations [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the current oil market lies in the supply - demand balance of global oils, with the core drivers mainly in the foreign market. Key contradictions include the digestion of inventory pressure in palm oil producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. - Price Range: P2601 fluctuates in the range of [8400 - 9000], Y2601 in the range of [8000 - 8500], and OI in the range of [9300 - 10000]. Pay short - term attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil. - Technical Analysis: Unilaterally, one can choose to go long on the P05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, one can go long on the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads. - Basis Strategy: Currently, the basis should be regarded from the perspective of short - term weak shock. - Calendar Spread Strategy: Considering the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in the first quarter of next year and Indonesia's B50 plan, palm oil has upward potential, and the P1 - 5 spread can be considered from the perspective of reverse spread. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: The rapeseed - palm spread and the soybean - palm spread will widen [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range of soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10000, and palm oil is 8400 - 9000. - Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to their inventory and price expectations [27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils decreased week - on - week. The October MPOB report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports [32]. - Negative Information: Malaysian palm oil inventory and production increased in October. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from November 1 - 10 compared with the same period last month. As of November 7, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week [33]. - Spot Transaction Information: The transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and there was almost no transaction in rapeseed oil [34]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [42]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market - Unilateral Trend: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment turned bearish, the downward space was limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the upcoming production - reduction season in producing areas. Attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing opportunity of palm oil [41]. - Capital Movement: The positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil foreign and retail investors slightly increased short positions, and long - position confidence was insufficient. The position change of soybean oil was relatively small, and foreign short - position holders slightly reduced positions. Rapeseed oil long - position holders left the market due to the expectation of eased China - Canada relations [41]. - Basis Structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to grind the bottom this week, and the basis remained weakly due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [43]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The oil market was differentiated. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. Palm oil did not have a clear structure, with the spot being the weakest and the 05 contract the strongest, showing a contango structure, but the 09 contract was relatively weak, and the 05 and 09 contracts showed a back structure [43]. - Spread Structure: This week, the soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads strengthened, while the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly. This was mainly because there was a lot of negative information in the palm oil market, rapeseed oil lacked clear information, and soybean oil was relatively strong due to the optimistic expectation of China - US trade talks [51]. - Foreign Market: The foreign market was mainly in shock this week. The negative factors in palm oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted, and the oil and oilseed sector maintained a shock operation. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and rapeseed oil was stronger than palm oil due to the lack of expectation of eased China - Canada relations [53]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The production cost of bio - fuels decreased slightly due to the decline in palm oil prices, and the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained low due to sufficient global soybean supply [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the cost price decreased slightly due to the decline in origin quotes, but the profit changed little, and there were almost no new purchase orders under the negative basis [60]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory slightly exceeded market expectations, but the negative impact of increased production was offset by a significant increase in exports. The La Nina climate has appeared in the producing areas, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. After October, it will enter the seasonal production - reduction season, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress in the producing areas [64]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: Under the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is extremely low, and it is expected that there will be little possibility of new near - month purchase orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is not expected to increase [66]. - Soybean Oil: The current arrival of soybeans is still high, but the supply pressure will gradually weaken from December as the arrival of soybeans decreases [66]. - Rapeseed Oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and the downstream demand is limited. However, the inventory will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [66]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, and the demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils, the market boost after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [70].