螺纹热卷日报-20251111

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3160 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3190 yuan (unchanged) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The black metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend today, with coking coal leading the decline. Finished steel products performed better than raw materials. The overall spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with poor speculative sentiment and average low-price rigid demand [5] - Last week's data from Steel Union showed that blast furnaces in North China continued to cut production, leading to an overall decline in steel output. However, electric arc furnaces have recently shifted to increased production, and it is expected that the supply of rebar will continue to grow. Last week, rebar inventory continued to decline, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased overall. The apparent demand for all steel products declined, and the supply-demand structure suppressed steel prices [5] - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production has squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to move downward. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds has slowed down, downstream payment collection is slow, and the number of projects has declined year-on-year. The impact of macro factors is gradually fading, and there is still pressure on the upside [5] - Today, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, which is a routine operation. The meeting also emphasized the need to focus on safety production. Coupled with the decline in the pithead price of thermal coal, it led to a sharp decline today. However, the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has officially started, and it is difficult for the supply of coking coal to increase significantly, so there is support for steel costs [5] - In the short term, steel prices will generally maintain a range-bound fluctuation, and more factors are needed to break the situation. Continue to pay attention to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important News - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season. The meeting required that all regions and relevant enterprises should fully recognize the importance of doing a good job in energy supply guarantee this heating season, including stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, making every effort to ensure energy supply during peak periods, focusing on ensuring energy for people's heating, improving the ability to respond to disasters such as low - temperature rain, snow, and freezing, and doing a good job in safety production [9][10] - Recently, the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has officially started. 22 central safety production assessment and inspection teams led by responsible comrades of relevant members of the State Council Safety Committee have successively entered 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps to conduct assessment and inspection on safety production work in 2025, which will be completed by the end of November. As of November 10, 10 central safety production assessment and inspection teams have entered Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Gansu, and Xinjiang [10]