黄金周报（2025.11.3-2025.11.9）：市场担忧美国出现流动性危机，金价延续震荡调整。-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and market concerns about a liquidity crisis in the US caused the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last week, the gold price was pressured by the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis. Overall, the gold price will continue to maintain a range - bound trend this week, as the long - term upward logic of the gold price remains unchanged, but there is currently a lack of clear upward factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Last Friday (November 7), the prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold futures, as well as London gold and gold T + D spot, all declined compared to the previous Friday. The cumulative price changes of different gold varieties are shown in Table 1, with the highest and lowest prices also presented [5][6]. - 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars per ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan per gram, a drop of 1.92 yuan per gram from the previous Friday [8]. - 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 18.76 yuan per gram, a significant increase from - 19.46 yuan per gram the previous Friday. The gold - to - oil ratio increased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio decreased slightly, and the gold - to - copper ratio increased significantly [10]. - 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D continued to decrease. In terms of futures positions, as of September 23, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both increased, with the net long positions rising slightly. The inventory of COMEX gold futures decreased, while the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures increased [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October continued to contract for eight consecutive months. The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The US ISM services PMI in October reached an eight - month high, and the price - payment index reached a three - year high. The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but salary growth remained stagnant [17][18][19]. - 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, Fed officials' differences over whether to continue cutting interest rates in December intensified. Different Fed officials expressed different views on interest - rate policies, inflation, and employment [29][30]. - 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight overall decline. As of last Friday, it decreased by 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. - 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS fluctuated slightly upward. As of last Friday, it increased by 2bp to 1.83% [33]. - 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched large - scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Different parties have different statements regarding these attacks [34].