财富管理月报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - US stocks - Overweight [33] - European stocks - Equal-weight [35] - Chinese A-shares - Equal-weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Equal-weight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal-weight [38] - Indian stocks - Equal-weight [39] 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, the global stock market generally rose, mainly driven by the AI technology boom. The Japanese stock market led the world, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring 16.64% in a single month. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks both corrected to some extent [32]. - The US economy shows mixed signals. The labor market's prosperity is declining, but inflation is under control. The Fed cut interest rates in October and is expected to cut again in December. The US stock market is expected to benefit from the end of the government shutdown, strong Q3 earnings, and AI development [9][11][35]. - The Chinese economy also presents a mixed picture. Consumption growth has slowed, but exports and imports have increased significantly. Industrial production remains resilient, but the real estate market is accelerating its decline [21][24]. - In the bond market, the yields of US, UK, and Chinese government bonds have changed, influenced by factors such as trade disputes, inflation, and central bank policies [58]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index strengthened in October, the Japanese yen depreciated unilaterally, and the Chinese yuan remained stable against the US dollar but appreciated against a basket of other currencies [62]. - In the commodity market, gold prices fluctuated, oil prices were weak, and copper prices reached a new high for the year [65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market 3.1.1 Global Stock Market Performance in October - The global stock market generally rose, with the Japanese stock market leading at 16.64% growth. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks corrected [32]. 3.1.2 US Stock Market - In October, the three major US stock indexes all had positive monthly returns. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, strong corporate earnings, and the strength of AI-driven technology stocks dominated market sentiment [35]. 3.1.3 European Stock Market - In October, European stocks showed a mild rebound, ending two months of sideways adjustment, supported by energy stocks, tech stocks' performance, and the ECB's loose policy [35]. 3.1.4 Chinese A-share and Hong Kong Stock Markets - A-shares were highly differentiated in October. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, while the STAR 50 Index fell. Hong Kong stocks were under pressure, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index [36][37]. 3.1.5 Japanese and Indian Stock Markets - The Japanese stock market reached a new high in October. However, due to the potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates and the full release of positive factors, the rating was downgraded from overweight to equal-weight. The Indian stock market rebounded strongly, and the rating was upgraded from underweight to equal-weight [38][39]. 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 Primary Market of Chinese Offshore Bonds - In October, 46 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds, including 26 US dollar bonds worth $5.52 billion and 20 offshore RMB bonds worth 30.09 billion RMB. Issuance volumes decreased significantly compared to September, but are expected to recover in November and December [45]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market of Chinese Offshore Bonds - As of October 31, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment-grade bond index rose 0.64%, and the high-yield bond index rose 0.17%. The real estate bond index fell 0.06%, the urban investment bond index rose 0.51%, and the financial bond index rose 0.36% [48][50]. 3.2.3 Global Bond Market Performance in October - In October, the performance of major global bond markets varied. The US bond market was influenced by "risk aversion," the UK bond market was affected by inflation and interest rate cut expectations, and the Chinese bond market was volatile [58]. 3.3 Foreign Exchange Market - In October, the US dollar index rose 2.08%. The Japanese yen depreciated unilaterally, and the Chinese yuan remained stable against the US dollar but appreciated against a basket of other currencies [61][62]. 3.4 Commodity Market - In October, gold prices showed a "high and then low" trend, oil prices were weak, and copper prices reached a new high for the year [65]. 3.5 Fund Selection - The report selected various types of funds, including money market funds, investment-grade short-term bond funds, investment-grade bond funds, US stock funds, Chinese stock funds, German funds, and Japanese funds, and provided their performance data [67].