原油日报：原油震荡运行-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ eight - country decision to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter, but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. With the end of the peak demand season, the overall oil product inventory has slightly increased. The market is worried about crude oil demand. Although the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela are at play. US - China relations have not fundamentally changed, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, the OPEC+ eight - country decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the acceleration of OPEC+ production increase have all contributed to the supply - surplus situation. The US has sanctioned Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the US is in line with market expectations, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.30% to 458.8 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 457.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 462.1 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,784 to 23,898 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA expects the global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It has also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. As of the week ending October 31st, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, while its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day. US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.651 million barrels per day in the week ending October 31st [3] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day. The single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]