PP日报：震荡下行-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as limited downstream order follow - up, insufficient stock - up demand during Double Eleven, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On November 11, new maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 83%, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently it is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations, OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in price with increasing positions, closing at 6464 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The position increased by 2552 lots to 655,336 lots [2] - In the spot market, PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with drawstring priced at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 7, maintenance devices such as the new second line of CNOOC Daxie restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of November 7, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $710 per ton week - on - week [4]