塑料日报：震荡下行-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, in a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as good as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry It is expected that plastics will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the plastic operating rate was around 88%, a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly due to factors such as Russia's oil sanctions and OPEC+ production decisions New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious and sold goods at reduced prices There was no anti - involution policy in the plastic industry, which would affect the subsequent market It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6815 yuan/ton, and closed at 6760 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.41% The position decreased by 1974 lots to 584333 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7010 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, a neutral level - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 71000 tons, 1000 tons higher than the same period last year It was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $740/ton month - on - month [4]