货币基金跟踪：25Q3，货基扩规模、拉久期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the bond market fluctuated repeatedly. Against this backdrop, the money market fund (MMF) market had two notable features: continued expansion on the liability side, which may continue into Q4, and an increase in duration along with a reduction in certificate of deposit (CD) holdings [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025Q3 MMF Quarterly Report: Two Key Concerns - Liability - side Expansion: In Q3, the MMF's stock size grew beyond the seasonal level, mainly due to the expansion of the liability side of existing products, primarily from the retail end. Reasons include the deposit rate cut in late May, the need for low - risk funds to transition from bond funds as the bond market was suppressed by the stock market since July, and the potential early "movement" of funds from high - interest fixed deposits. This expansion trend may continue in Q4 as high - interest fixed deposits mature and the MMF's liquidity advantage is strengthened by the fund sales fee regulation [2][9]. - Increasing Duration and Reducing CD Holdings: In Q3, the MMF's duration lengthened, with a reduction in CD holdings and an increase in financial bond holdings. The proportion of assets with a 30 - 120 - day term increased, while that of assets within 30 days decreased. This was because the CD's allocation cost - effectiveness decreased, and increasing the duration of the portfolio through the purchase of policy - financial bonds could enhance returns. Additionally, allocating to deposits and repurchase agreements helped reduce negative deviation pressure and meet potential redemption needs [3][10]. 2025Q3 MMF Performance Overview - Size: The net asset value was approximately 14.63 trillion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 50 billion yuan, continuing to exceed the seasonal level. The scale of newly - issued funds dropped significantly, with 3 new MMFs issued, totaling about 9.2 billion yuan [4][11]. - Subscription and Redemption: The proportion of net - subscribed MMFs was about 51.9%, a 6.9 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The retail - end net subscription - redemption rate slightly increased, while the institutional - end rate significantly decreased [18]. - Leverage Reduction and Duration Increase: The average leverage ratio was 105%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The average remaining maturity of the portfolio was about 85 days, a slight increase of about 1 day from the previous quarter [4][26]. - Deviation: The number of funds with the lowest negative deviation remained at a low level, with 150 funds, a slight increase of 33 from the previous quarter. The negative deviation pressure was generally limited [4][28]. - Performance: The MMF's yield continued to decline slightly. In terms of the monthly average yield, the average and median at the end of September were 1.12% and 1.12% respectively, a decrease of 0.13 and 0.16 percentage points from the end of June [4][33]. - Asset Allocation: MMFs reduced bond holdings and increased bank deposits and repurchase agreements. Among bonds, they reduced CD holdings and increased policy - financial bond holdings, while also lengthening the asset allocation term [3][40].