齐翔腾达（002408）：三季度业绩承压，反内卷驱动下景气度有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.212 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -146 million yuan, down 174.19% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -144 million yuan, a decline of 182.20% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.004 billion yuan, an increase of 6.75% year-on-year but a decrease of 8.89% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -169 million yuan, turning to a loss both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the C4 industrial chain, with significant competitive advantages. It focuses on deep processing of raw material C4, forming four product lines, including but not limited to methyl ethyl ketone, maleic anhydride, MMA, and nitrile latex, with a market share of approximately 70% in China [13]. - The company is expanding into the C3 industrial chain, with projects including a propane dehydrogenation project and an epoxy propane project. However, the supply-demand imbalance in the epoxy propane market poses challenges to profitability [13]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 60 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 910 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 246.1x, 28.7x, and 15.4x [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 18.212 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.77% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -146 million yuan, a decline of 174.19% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -144 million yuan, down 182.20% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 6.004 billion yuan, up 6.75% year-on-year but down 8.89% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -169 million yuan, indicating a loss both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the C4 industrial chain, focusing on the deep processing of raw material C4, with a strong market presence in products like methyl ethyl ketone and maleic anhydride. The company benefits from its location in Shandong, which has abundant refining resources [13]. - The company is also developing its C3 industrial chain, with several projects underway. However, the supply-demand dynamics in the epoxy propane market are challenging, affecting profitability [13]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of 60 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 910 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential growth [13].