海外宏观周报：美国政府停摆初现曙光-20251111

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Senate reached a compromise to advance a spending bill aimed at ending the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025[1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) year-end target balance is maintained at approximately $850 billion, despite previous fluctuations due to the shutdown and other factors[1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, marking a three-and-a-half-year low, while inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%[10] Group 2: Market Performance - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 earnings, with 82% exceeding EPS expectations and overall earnings growing nearly 12% year-over-year[2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks losing approximately $800 billion in market value[9] - Retail investors continue to buy on dips, providing support for the U.S. stock market despite high valuations[2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is debating the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution due to high inflation and economic data delays caused by the government shutdown[9][21] - Market expectations indicate one more rate cut in December 2025 and two additional cuts in 2026[23] - Risks include stronger-than-expected economic data that could delay rate cuts and weaken support for risk assets[3][24]