银河期货航运日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the 12 and 02 contracts of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to show divergent trends. The 02 contract is mainly driven by the logic of position transfer and basis correction, while the 12 contract follows the spot delivery logic. The 12 - 2 reverse spread logic may continue in the short term. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [8][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 11, 2025, among different futures contracts, EC2602 had a significant increase of 5.33% to 1,690.5 points, with a trading volume increase of 351.24% and an open interest increase of 18.85%. EC2512 closed at 1,746.1 points, down 1.81% from the previous day [5] - The month - spread structure showed various changes. For example, the EC12 - EC02 spread was 56 points, down 117.7 points [5] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index was 1504.80 points, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.43%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1329.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.84% [5] - Different container shipping routes had different price changes. For example, the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa price was 3728 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 8.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13% [5] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The WTI crude oil near - month price was 59.94 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.92%. The Brent crude oil near - month price was 63.7 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the EC futures market was affected by position transfer and the uncertainty of the 02 contract's delivery settlement date. The EC2602 contract rose significantly due to position transfer and potential changes in the delivery settlement date. However, the final decision lies with the exchange [7] - In the short term, the 12 and 02 contracts are expected to show different trends. The 12 contract's valuation is under pressure as the shipping capacity is abundant in the second half of November, and the shipping companies' motivation to increase prices is weakening [8] - In terms of spot freight rates, although the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, the motivation to increase prices in the second half of November is weakening, and the expected price increase may not be fully realized. The freight rates in December may be restricted [9] - The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the Nordic 5 - port area in November and December is relatively stable, with only minor changes in this period. The shipping companies' cargo - handling performance after the Sino - US tariff reduction and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the EC2602 contract's valuation need to be monitored [9][10][11] 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [12] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.3 Industry News - The CMA CGM Jules Verne on the OCEAN Alliance MED2 route is expected to reach the Suez Canal waters on November 14, which may indicate that the OCEAN Alliance is expanding its Red Sea test scope [14] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been in effect for one month, but the implementation has been full of difficulties, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still uncertain [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the SCFIS European line index, SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes over different time periods [17][18][20]