国投期货能源日报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated in the given rating form, but the analysis implies a bearish view in the medium - term with short - term support [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly rated in the form, but analysis shows short - term support and potential for the spread with high - sulfur fuel oil to widen [2] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with a weak upward/downward trend and poor operability on the trading board [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear bullish trend and current investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views - For the oil market, although there are short - term factors supporting oil prices, considering inventory trends, refinery operations, and the expected loosening of the balance sheet in the first quarter of next year, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] - In the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is likely to further widen [2] - The asphalt market is under pressure due to poor demand, slow inventory reduction, and negative fundamental signals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market has improved fundamentals, with reduced supply and increased demand, which supports the LPG futures price [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, global oil inventories decreased, mainly in refined products. Diesel cracking is strong overseas. Considering the recovery of refinery operating rates in Europe and the US after autumn maintenance and the strong refining profit, the low point of diesel inventory is approaching [2] - Since November, the oil price contango and spot premium have weakened again. With the loosest balance sheet period (Q1 next year) yet to come, there is still room for oil prices to fall this year. However, the resolution of the US government shutdown and the intensifying geopolitical game around Russia and Ukraine provide short - term support. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is mainly driven by the cost side. Although supported by geopolitical situations, Russian shipments decreased in October due to facility attacks, but exports from the Middle East increased after the end of the power - generation peak season, and OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, so the overall supply tends to be loose. Import demand support is limited, and the expected early issuance of the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 may further weaken feedstock demand [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support from factors such as the unexpected shutdown of the Al Zour refinery, the adjustment of the Dangote refinery's shipping schedule, and the possible shift of quotas to refined products. The frequent attacks on Russian refineries have pushed up the diesel price, which is transmitted to the low - sulfur fuel oil market through component correlation [2] Asphalt - The shipment volume is worse than expected, falsifying the expectation of rush - work demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and indicating that demand is lower than the same period last year. Commercial inventory reduction has slowed down this week, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened since the inflection point in late October. The basis of the lowest deliverable spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China relative to the main asphalt contract has shown obvious differentiation, with high bases in East and South China and a negative basis in Shandong. The market is bearish, and the asphalt price is under significant pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG has shown a narrow - range oscillation today and is relatively strong among oil futures. In the latest week, both the commercial volume and arrivals of LPG have decreased. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG futures price [4]