国投期货农产品日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ★☆☆ (One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer bullish/bearish trend, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international trade relations. Investors should pay attention to relevant information and market dynamics to find investment opportunities and manage risks [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - The price of Beans 1 shows high - level fluctuations. The resumption of soybean auction by Sinograin cools the market sentiment. Sinograin started soybean procurement last week, with high - protein soybeans having a price advantage. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans increase with the rebound of imported soybeans. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal futures continues to fluctuate. Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans enter a wide - range oscillation waiting period after a strong rise. The import tax rate of US soybeans in China is changed to 13%, but commercial imports still have no price advantage. The crushing profit is repaired with the increase of import cost. It is expected that the soybean supply will be basically sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. The sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans is 58.4% as of November 8th, slower than normal. The key lies in the ending inventory data in the USDA November supply - demand report. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil follow the strength of rapeseed oil. The supply - demand situation of rapeseed oil in the medium and short term is strong, which boosts the price of soybean and palm oil. The current supply - demand situation of palm oil shows high inventory in Malaysia. The import loss of soybean in the near - term disk provides support for soybean oil. The soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal in the oil - meal ratio this week. The price of palm oil is in a horizontal oscillation, and attention should be paid to its supply - demand situation and the trend of surrounding oils [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The trading volume and open interest of domestic rapeseed futures contracts increase, maintaining the trend of strong oil and weak meal. The shortage of rapeseed in domestic coastal areas leads to a more than expected decline in the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal, especially rapeseed oil, which supports its price reversal. Attention should be paid to the arrival time of Australian rapeseed, the data adjustment of the USDA supply - demand report, and the trend of China - Canada relations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract increases by 0.93% with reduced positions. The estimated corn output this season is 300 million tons, an increase of 1.72% compared with the previous season. The spot price of corn is strong in some areas due to factors such as temperature drop and reduced supply. However, the overall supply pattern is still loose, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to operate at the bottom and wait for a callback [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs decreases slightly, while the futures show a significant increase in positions, and the near - month January contract drops sharply. The high price difference between fattening pigs may slow down the overall slaughter rhythm. Seasonal demand is increasing, and the pig price may enter a seasonal rebound stage. In the long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The far - month egg futures price rises sharply and breaks through the previous oscillation platform. The decline in chick replenishment in the second half of this year leads to the expectation of a decrease in the laying - hen inventory in the future. The near - month contracts are weak due to the stable - to - weak spot price. The price of eggs is stable in most areas with a decline in some provinces. The logic of near - and far - month contracts is different. Attention should be paid to the spot performance and old - hen culling, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [9]