地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：四川篇

Report Summary - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [4] - The report focuses on the economic, fiscal, and debt situations of Sichuan Province and its prefecture - level cities, as well as the conditions of local urban investment enterprises. It points out that Sichuan has obvious location and resource advantages, with its economy growing steadily and the government actively addressing debt issues. However, there are still challenges such as uneven regional development and debt pressure [4][5][6] Group 1: Sichuan Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength Economic Development - Sichuan has significant location and resource advantages, with well - developed land and air transportation. Its economic aggregate ranks high in China, but the urbanization level is relatively low, and the per - capita GDP is in the middle - lower range. The tertiary industry is the main driving force for economic growth [7][10][11] - The construction of the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle is advancing, with major projects having a total investment of over 12 trillion yuan. In 2025, the planned investment is about 3.7 trillion yuan, and as of August 2025, the investment completion rate is 75.29% [12][14] - Sichuan has introduced a series of policies in 2025 to boost consumption, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and improve economic recovery [14][15] Fiscal Strength and Debt - Sichuan's general public budget revenue ranks 7th in China, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low. The government - funded revenue has decreased due to the real estate market, while the superior subsidy revenue ranks first in the country, supporting the comprehensive fiscal strength. The comprehensive fiscal strength ranks 4th in China [17][18][21] - By the end of 2024, Sichuan's government debt balance was 2.40289 trillion yuan, with a debt ratio of 143.87% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 37.14%. The government has been actively reducing debt through measures such as obtaining replacement bonds, introducing incentive mechanisms, and strengthening debt management since 2024 [24][26][27] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Sichuan's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Development - The economic development of Sichuan's prefecture - level cities is uneven. The Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and the Southern Sichuan Economic Zone have better industrial bases. Chengdu has far stronger economic strength than other cities, and Panzhihua has the highest per - capita GDP in the province [28][29][33] Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, most prefecture - level cities' general public budget revenues increased, with growth rates concentrated between 2% - 10%. The government - funded revenues of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive fiscal strength [37][38][39] Debt - The government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities have increased, and the debt ratios have generally risen. Zigong, Suining, Bazhong, and Neijiang have relatively high debt ratios. All cities are following Sichuan's overall debt - reduction strategy [48][49] Group 3: Sichuan's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview - As of October 22, 2025, there are 218 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Sichuan. Most of them are at the district - county level, and the credit ratings are mainly AA. Chengdu has the largest number of such enterprises [52] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by Sichuan's urban investment enterprises decreased slightly. From 2024 to September 2025, most cities' urban investment enterprises had a net outflow of bond financing, and the outstanding bond balances decreased [54][55][57] Debt - paying Ability - The total debt of most urban investment enterprises has increased, with the debt structure mainly composed of bank financing and bond financing. The overall debt - to - capital ratio has slightly increased, and the cash - to - short - term debt ratio has decreased. Suining's urban investment enterprises face significant short - term debt - paying pressure [60][61][65] Support from Fiscal Revenue - Except for Liangshan and Ya'an, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal revenue in other cities exceeds 200%, with Chengdu exceeding 500% [73]