地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：上海篇

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai is a leading economic and financial center in China, with a strong modern industrial system and high - quality economic development. The overall debt burden of the local government and urban investment enterprises is relatively light, and the debt management system is improving, effectively preventing debt risks [4]. - The economic and financial strength of Shanghai's districts varies significantly. Pudong New Area has an absolute leading position in economic aggregate, while Huangpu District leads in per - capita GDP. The debt situation of each district also shows structural differentiation [23][32][33]. - Shanghai's urban investment enterprises are mainly distributed in Pudong New Area, the municipal level, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District, with excellent overall qualifications. Although the net financing scale of bonds decreased in 2024, the overall debt burden is relatively light, and the short - term solvency pressure is small [4][56][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Shanghai's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Shanghai - Shanghai is a key economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation center in China, with outstanding location advantages, a strong transportation system, and rich resource endowments. It has a high level of urbanization and prominent talent advantages [5]. - In 2024, Shanghai's GDP ranked first among Chinese cities, with a per - capita GDP of 217,400 yuan, ranking second among provincial - level administrative regions. From January to September 2025, the GDP reached 4.072117 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.5% [8][12]. - Shanghai has formed a modern industrial system with modern service industries as the main body, strategic emerging industries as the leading, and advanced manufacturing as the support. The tertiary industry has been the main driving force for economic growth, accounting for over 70% from 2022 - 2024 [11]. - National strategies and policies, such as the construction of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, financial reform pilot, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, have promoted Shanghai's economic development [13][14][15][16]. (2) Shanghai's Fiscal Strength and Government Debt Situation - From 2022 - 2024, Shanghai's general public budget revenue was large, mainly from tax revenue, with high - quality fiscal revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate fluctuated and increased, indicating strong local fiscal self - sufficiency [18]. - The government - funded revenue decreased continuously from 2022 - 2024, with a high dependence on land transfer revenue. As of the end of 2024, the government debt balance was 909.09 billion yuan, with a relatively low debt burden in the country [18][20]. - In 2024, Shanghai's government debt rate and debt - to - GDP ratio ranked among the lowest in the country. The government's future financing space is sufficient, with a debt balance of 88.30% of the debt limit [20][22]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Shanghai's Districts (1) Economic Strength of Shanghai's Districts - The economic strength of Shanghai's districts varies greatly. Pudong New Area has an absolute leading position in GDP, while Huangpu District leads in per - capita GDP. Each district has clear development goals and distinct industrial characteristics [23][32][33]. - Shanghai has proposed a spatial development pattern of "center radiation, two wings flying together, new cities taking off, and north - south transformation", and the dynamic planning scheme has further refined the implementation path [26][27]. (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Shanghai's Districts - Fiscal Revenue: The general public budget revenue of Shanghai's districts varies significantly. Pudong New Area ranks first, followed by Minhang District and Jing'an District, while Jinshan District and Chongming District are relatively small. The revenue growth rate shows differentiation, and the overall revenue quality is high [37][38][39]. - Government Debt: The growth rate of the overall government debt balance of Shanghai's districts shows structural differentiation. Most districts have a relatively low debt - to - GDP ratio, except for Chongming District. Jinshan District, Chongming District, Fengxian District, Putuo District, and Yangpu District have relatively high debt rates [48][49]. - Debt Management: Shanghai has launched a pilot project to eliminate hidden debts and established a normalized supervision mechanism. Each district has carried out debt management work in line with the city's requirements [51][52][54]. III. Solvency of Shanghai's Urban Investment Enterprises (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of June 2025, there were 55 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Shanghai, mainly distributed in Pudong New Area, the municipal level, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District. The overall qualification is excellent [57]. - Since 2024, the credit ratings of some urban investment enterprises have been upgraded, and no credit risk events have occurred in the region [62]. (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the net financing scale of Shanghai's urban investment enterprise bonds decreased compared with the previous year, and the funds mainly flowed to urban investment enterprises in Pudong New Area and the municipal level [63]. (3) Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the overall debt burden of Shanghai's urban investment enterprises was relatively light, and the short - term solvency pressure of district - level urban investment enterprises was small. Pudong New Area, Jing'an District, and Fengxian District have large bond maturity scales in the next three years [66][68][69]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of Shanghai's urban investment enterprises showed a net inflow, but the refinancing scale generally decreased compared with the previous year [76]. (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in each district of Shanghai varied greatly. Fengxian District and Jinshan District were close to 200.00%, while Xuhui District and Baoshan District had better support and guarantee ability [77].