有色金属周度观点-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - Market Sentiment: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - Overseas Situation: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - Market Trend: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - Supply: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - Inventory and Spot: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - Market Trend: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - Market Trend: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - Spot and Supply: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - Consumption: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - Market Trend: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - Market Situation: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - Spot and Supply: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - Consumption: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - Market Trend: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - Macro and Demand: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - Market Trend: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - Market Situation: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - Supply: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - Consumption: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - Market Trend: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures and Spot: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - Demand: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - Market Trend: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased [1]. - Market Trend: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - Market Trend: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].