国投期货宏观金融早报-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market has cooled down after a surge and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum and alumina market shows significant divergence, with the overall trend being macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger. The zinc market presents opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is short - term bull - bear balanced and oscillating in a certain range. The nickel and stainless steel market is under fundamental pressure. The tin market may be in a short - term tight situation but is expected to decline in the long run. The lithium carbonate market is in a state of strong supply and demand, with short - term strong oscillations. The industrial silicon market has weak supply and demand but may oscillate slightly stronger. The polysilicon market is mainly influenced by policy expectations and will continue to oscillate [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Price and Sentiment: Copper prices declined and oscillated last week after hitting a high. The market is more sensitive to demand changes after digesting supply - side news. The probability of interest rate cuts in the UK has increased, and the domestic October household appliance export volume has turned negative [1]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and the expected production increase in December is limited. The downstream acceptance of high tin prices is better than in Q2 last year, and the inventory decreased last week [1]. - Overseas Situation: Codelco lowered its annual production guidance, and some overseas mines have resumed production [1]. - Trend: The copper market is dominated by funds. The upward momentum has decreased. It is recommended to observe or conduct option trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is running weakly, with the lower limit pointing to the low point in the first half of the year [1]. - Supply: The operating capacity is temporarily stable. There are new domestic production capacity plans, and overseas production capacity is expected to resume in 11 - 12 months [1]. - Demand: The domestic downstream processing leading enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - Inventory and Spot: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The spot premium and discount fluctuated within a narrow range [1]. - Trend: The market is macro - led and oscillating slightly stronger, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and the market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - Trend: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market is strong, supporting the domestic market. The domestic market is testing the pressure level [1]. - Spot and Supply: The LME zinc inventory has stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure, with an increasing expectation of production reduction. There are opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [1]. - Consumption: The terminal consumption is weak, mainly for rigid procurement. Traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - Trend: It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - Market: The LME lead inventory has been decreasing, and the external market is rebounding, supporting the domestic market. The long - short confrontation in the domestic market is intense [1]. - Spot and Supply: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the supply of lead concentrate is in short supply. The profit of smelters is good, and the supply is expected to increase [1]. - Consumption: The demand is improving, with good performance in energy - storage batteries and automobile batteries [1]. - Trend: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is recommended to participate in short - term long positions at low prices [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market: The nickel and stainless steel markets were oscillating at a low level last week, with light trading [1]. - Macro and Demand: The non - ferrous market is strong externally, but the nickel industry is restricted by over - supply, and the market is sluggish [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly. The support of upstream price rebound is weakening [1]. - Trend: The nickel market is running weakly [1]. Tin - Market: The tin price continued to oscillate last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - Supply: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of overseas mines is generally stable [1]. - Consumption: There are no obvious bright spots in consumption [1]. - Trend: The tin market may be tight in the first half of November, but it is expected to decline in the long run. It is recommended to consider short - selling [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The futures price rebounded rapidly, with active trading and significant capital inflow [1]. - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, and the price of industrial grade is 200 yuan/ton. The supply adjustment supports the price [1]. - Demand: Downstream enterprises are actively increasing production, and the battery factory orders are increasing [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the mine - end quotation strengthened [1]. - Trend: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The futures price rose above 9,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the supply of organic silicon has increased slightly [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased, with a significant decrease in the delivery warehouse [1]. - Trend: The market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - Supply and Demand: The supply and demand are both weak. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is decreasing, and the terminal installation is at a low level [1]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly [1]. - Trend: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, mainly influenced by production capacity regulation expectations [1].