农产品日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy: None - Hold: Soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, egg [1] - Sell: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, with some in high - level oscillations, some rising or falling, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand, and international trade relations [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment strategies, including waiting for opportunities to go long, short - term waiting and seeing, and expecting limited rebounds [3][6][7] Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - Soybean: The price of domestic soybeans is in high - level oscillation. The restart of soybean auction by Sinograin cools the market sentiment, while the purchase by Sinograin warehouses shows the advantage of high - protein soybean prices. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans increase with the rebound of imported soybeans. Short - term focus is on policies and market sentiment [2] - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The main contract of soybean meal futures oscillates. US soybeans are in a wide - range oscillation after a strong rise. The import tax rate of US soybeans in China is changed to 13%, but commercial imports still have no price advantage. The supply of soybeans is expected to be basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 next year. The sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans is 58.4% as of November 8th. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and look for long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Soybean oil and palm oil follow rapeseed oil to strengthen. The short - and medium - term supply - demand of rapeseed oil is strong, which boosts the price of soybean and palm oil. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia needs attention. The loss of the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil. The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil is in a horizontal oscillation, and its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils need attention [4] Rapeseed Products - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The positions and trading volume of domestic rapeseed futures contracts increase, maintaining the trend of strong oil and weak meal. The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas leads to a more than expected decline in the inventory of rapeseed products, especially rapeseed oil, which supports its price. Supply - side focus is on the arrival time of Australian rapeseeds, the data adjustment of the USDA supply - demand report, and the Sino - Canadian relations. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The 2601 contract of Dalian corn futures rises by 0.93% with reduced positions. The estimated output of this season's corn is 3 billion tons, a 1.72% increase. The spot price is strong in some areas due to temperature drop and reduced supply. The price of wheat starts to weaken. The high - level supply of grains in the Northeast has not passed, and the rebound height of the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be limited, and it may continue to operate at the bottom [7] Livestock and Poultry Products - Pig: The spot price of pigs decreases slightly, while the futures show a significant increase in positions, and the near - month January contract drops sharply. The high price difference between fattening pigs may slow down the overall slaughter rhythm, and the pig price may have a seasonal rebound. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom - probing next year [8] - Egg: The far - month egg futures price rises sharply and breaks through the previous oscillation platform. The reason is the expected decline in the laying - hen inventory due to the sharp decrease in chick replenishment in the second half of this year. The near - month contracts are weak due to the weakening of the spot price. The overall egg price is stable with some provincial declines. Focus on the spot performance and old - hen culling, and wait and see for now [9]