HTSC·2025-11-11 11:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The new tax-free shopping policy in Hainan is expected to boost consumption and attract overseas spending back to the region, benefiting China Duty Free Group (CDFG) due to its scale and operational experience [1]. - The recent policy changes include an expansion of product categories, relaxed eligibility criteria, and simplified approval processes, which are anticipated to significantly enhance the performance of duty-free shopping in Hainan [2][3]. - CDFG has proactively positioned itself to leverage these policy benefits, focusing on product variety, membership systems, and expanding its duty-free store network [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating for CDFG is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 104.16 and HKD 93.96 respectively [7]. Policy Changes - The new policies include the addition of two major product categories and six types of domestic goods eligible for tax exemption, as well as allowing island residents with departure records to purchase duty-free items without restrictions [2]. - The implementation of these policies has already shown positive results, with Hainan's duty-free shopping amounting to RMB 506 million from November 1 to November 7, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [2]. Company Positioning - CDFG has introduced various domestic brands and is enhancing its membership system, which has grown to over 26 million members as of Q3 [4]. - The company is developing a comprehensive duty-free platform that includes island, airport, and city duty-free operations, with expectations of revenue and profit recovery as policies improve [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects an increase in net profit for CDFG, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 being RMB 47.60 billion and RMB 56.09 billion respectively, reflecting a 13% and 17% increase [5]. - The target price adjustments are based on a slight increase in premium rates, with the A-share target price reflecting a 45x PE ratio for 2026 [5].