10月通胀数据点评：通胀整体改善，政策效应显现

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]