Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the past two weeks, the crude oil market has been in a volatile state due to the delayed realization of the expected supply shock and the digestion of previous short - term geopolitical events. Without clear fundamental and geopolitical drivers, crude oil is likely to continue to fluctuate until new variables emerge. In the energy - chemical sector, different products show different trends. Polyester is hyped for supply cuts, styrene has short - term supply - demand improvement but significant medium - term supply pressure, and methanol has a clear medium - term upward drive. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the deployment of the US military in the region [2]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: The pressure of crude oil supply surplus remains significant from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, but the expected supply shock is delayed. After the rebound caused by the US Treasury's sanctions on a Russian oil company was mostly reversed, and with no new geopolitical variables, crude oil is likely to keep fluctuating. The situation in Venezuela is uncertain and not fully priced in the market. Wait for the last high - selling opportunity after possible military actions [4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term volatile structure. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: Recently, due to more maintenance, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest in the same period in recent years, but the output is still at a high level. Although the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage, the destocking rate is lower than in previous years. In the medium - term, there are huge contradictions, especially the seasonal inventory build - up in the first quarter of next year. It is not advisable to short at present, but rather to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - selling opportunity [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Although the short - term downward trend remains unchanged, there are signs of short - position profit - taking. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6345. It is recommended to take profit when geopolitical risks increase and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [9]. Rubber - Logic: Since August, the downward trend of rubber has been less smooth than that of synthetic rubber. Although the tire demand has a similar impact on both, the natural rubber has no obvious supply pressure during the Southeast Asian rainy season since October. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the driving effect of synthetic rubber [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened, and the upper short - term pressure is at 15170. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The main driver is the cost - side butadiene. Although the weekly production of domestic butadiene has reached a new high, the inventory has not increased significantly due to the high operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of butadiene will be the main contradiction, and the medium - term short - selling idea remains unchanged. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - selling opportunity [17]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 10500. It is recommended to take profit when geopolitical risks increase and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [19]. PX - Logic: There are few contradictions in the polyester industry itself, but after a symposium on the development of the PTA and bottle - chip industries, there are rumors of production cuts in the polyester industry, and the market has increased positions and risen. Attention should be paid to the realization of these expectations [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upward structure remains unchanged. The lower short - term support is at 6715. It is recommended to try to go long when the support is not broken and a reversal pattern appears [24]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, there are few contradictions in the polyester industry itself, but production - cut rumors have led to an increase in positions and prices. Attention should be paid to the realization of these expectations [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upward structure remains unchanged. The lower short - term support is at 4620. It is recommended to try to go long when the support is not broken and a reversal pattern appears [26]. PP - Logic: After the commissioning of a petrochemical plant in Guangxi, the supply pressure of PP has increased, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 6530. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [28]. Methanol - Logic: Currently, the import of methanol is still abundant, and the downward drive from high supply, high import, and high inventory continues. However, due to the high coal price and compressed profit margins, it is not advisable to short. For long - position seekers, although the short - term pressure of high supply and high inventory exists, the domestic supply - demand is relatively healthy, and the medium - term long - buying logic is expected due to the approaching winter gas - restriction in Iran and the unpriced situation in Venezuela. Pay attention to the signal of short - term structure conversion and the occurrence of the two events [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. After a small decline with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 2150. It is recommended to take profit on short positions at 2150 or take the initiative to take profit. Wait to go long after the short - term structure reverses above 2150 [33]. PVC - Logic: After the end of centralized maintenance, the operating rate has increased, and the supply remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has reached a historical high. There is no upward drive [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After reaching a new low with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure has moved down to 4625. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [36]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity coming online. The supply - demand pressure is large under the inventory - build - up pattern, but beware of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. After a decline with increased positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 3950. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [38]. Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of a petrochemical plant in Guangxi, the supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. The supply - demand expectation is weak, and beware of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 6850. It is recommended to take profit on short positions when geopolitical risks increase [40]. Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the downward drive remains unchanged. There was a rebound today due to rumors of some enterprises' production suspension [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a decline with reduced positions, the upper short - term pressure is at 1245. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously with a stop - profit at 1245 [45]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and there is no upward drive in supply - demand [46]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After intraday fluctuations, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2400. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [46].
天富期货：等待原油走出震荡
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-11-11 12:10