多晶硅大幅下挫

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures market is volatile with a downward trend, affected by factors such as production reduction, weak downstream demand, and market sentiment towards policies [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to have a wide - range shock, supported by strong downstream and energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [5][8]. - The industrial silicon futures market will likely maintain a volatile state due to a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [12]. Summary by Directory Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures market had an intraday rise and fall, with the main 2601 contract down 3.33% to 51930 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Fundamentals: There were few changes in the fundamentals. Silicon wafer and battery cell spot prices dropped significantly. The market focus was on the storage platform and enterprise announcements, but market sensitivity decreased. In November, domestic production was expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic industry chain remained weak, and component tender prices continued to decline [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with an increased position, controlled by short - sellers. There were trading opportunities at 9:30 and 13:35. The 5 - minute cycle was in a weak state, and the futures may fluctuate downward. The 2 - hour cycle's long - short dividing line was 53845 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The lithium carbonate futures market also rose and then fell, with the main 2601 contract down 0.80% to 86540 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: Downstream and energy - storage demand was strong, and continuous inventory reduction supported the price. Weekly production increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved marginally. However, the spot market's acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate was limited. This week's inventory decreased by 3405 tons, a 2.67% decrease, and the social inventory had been decreasing for 12 weeks, with a cumulative reduction of 18465 tons. The smelting profit was restored [5][8]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of lithium carbonate futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was in a sideways shock state, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 78560 yuan/ton [8]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated weakly, with the main 2601 contract down 1.18% to 9180 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [12]. - Fundamentals: The fundamentals tightened. Most small and medium - sized southern factories reduced or stopped production due to higher electricity prices in the dry season, while some leading enterprises remained stable. Northern large - scale factories' production did not decrease as expected. However, downstream polysilicon production was expected to decrease, and the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries faced challenges. The overall supply - demand was weak, with no clear trend [12]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with a decreased position, controlled by long - sellers. The 5 - minute cycle was weak, and it was expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle was still strong, and the long - short dividing line was 8885 yuan/ton [12].