港股11月策略月报：调整后仍有空间，配置上重回哑铃策略-20251111

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market present investment opportunities due to the expectation gap among investors [1][4] - It anticipates a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, driven by several positive catalysts including advancements in China's technology sector, improved Sino-US relations, and supportive government policies [4][6] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, focusing on aggressive investments in technology and non-ferrous metals while maintaining defensive positions in dividend stocks and turnaround opportunities [2][4] Market Analysis - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing marginal slowdown, but the new economy, particularly technology, is showing strong growth with a reported profit growth rate of 31.7% [4][8] - The easing of tensions in Sino-US relations is expected to enhance market sentiment, with several agreements reached to alleviate trade disputes [14][17] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide additional support for economic transformation and domestic demand, with policies aimed at technological innovation and macroeconomic stability [18][19] Liquidity and Valuation - Continuous net inflows from foreign and southbound funds are expected, with the report highlighting a significant net inflow of 9 billion USD from foreign investors in October [24][37] - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a P/E ratio of 12.0, significantly lower than other major global indices [50][54] - The report emphasizes that the risk premium for Hong Kong stocks is notably high compared to the S&P 500, indicating a favorable investment environment [50][51] Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a focus on the AI industry chain and non-ferrous metals as key growth sectors, while also recommending investments in essential consumer goods that are showing signs of recovery [4][6] - The strategy includes a defensive approach towards high-dividend stocks, which are expected to remain in demand due to increasing interest from southbound funds and insurance capital [4][6] - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of a gradual upward trend supported by improved economic conditions and continued foreign investment [60]