天富期货：菜油劲升，生猪下挫

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed oil market is expected to be strong due to factors such as halted rapeseed imports and inventory depletion, while the hog market faces continued downward pressure because of high inventory and slow - growing demand [1]. - Different agricultural products show various trends: rapeseed oil rises, hogs fall, soybean meal fluctuates weakly, corn rises strongly, eggs show a near - weak and far - strong pattern, dates continue to decline, cotton moves sideways, apples rise strongly, and sugar rises oscillating [1][2][3][5][8][9][12][15][17][20]. Summary by Directory I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil is strongly bullish as import stagnation and oil mill shutdowns lead to inventory depletion, and it may remain strong in the future. Hogs are bearish as high inventory and slow - starting demand suppress prices, and there is continued downward pressure [1]. II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil - The main 2601 contract of rapeseed oil rises strongly due to inventory depletion. With Sino - Canadian trade relations unimproved, import of Canadian rapeseed has stopped, leading to oil mill shutdowns and a 10% week - on - week decrease in inventory as of the 45th weekend. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long at dips with support at 9572 and resistance at 9838 [2]. (2) Hogs - The main 2601 contract of hogs breaks down due to abundant supply and slow - starting demand. The supply of breeding sows is 3% higher than the normal level, and the demand for curing is slow to start. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short lightly with support at 11580 and resistance at 12000 [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises then falls and fluctuates weakly. Sino - US trade improvement may lead to US soybean exports to China, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient. Technically, it is in a downward adjustment, and the strategy is to close long positions with support at 3034 and resistance at 3064 [5]. (4) Corn - The main 2601 contract of corn rises strongly due to policy support and downstream restocking. The sales progress in the Northeast is better than expected, and downstream enterprises have restocking needs. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly with support at 2166 and resistance at 2200 [8]. (5) Eggs - The near - month 2512 contract of eggs oscillates downward, while the far - month 2602 contract is strong. High egg - laying hen inventory restricts the near - month contract, while the far - month contract is supported by festival demand. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on the 2512 contract and go long lightly on the 2602 contract, with support at 3128 and resistance at 3198 for the 2512 contract, and support at 3083 and resistance at 3120 for the 2602 contract [9][11]. (6) Dates - The main 2601 contract of dates continues to decline due to new dates on the market and inventory growth. The inventory on November 6 was 9541 tons, a 2.06% week - on - week increase. Technically, it is in a downward trend, and the strategy is to hold short positions with support at 9405 and resistance at 9625 [12][14]. (7) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton moves sideways. New cotton supply increases, and some spinning mills are cautious about restocking. Technically, it shows a weakening trend, and the strategy is to close long positions with support at 13530 and resistance at 13650 [15]. (8) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rises strongly. Apple inventory is lower than last year, and the proportion of high - quality fruits is low. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long lightly with support at 9095 and resistance at 9298 [17]. (9) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar rises oscillating. The peak of sugar imports has passed, and supply shortages support prices. Technically, it turns strong, and the strategy is to go long at dips with support at 5473 and resistance at 5500 [20].