KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-11-11 14:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of deposit non-bankization, which is leading to a marginal decline in liquidity indicators for banks. This trend is particularly pronounced among large banks, with a notable increase in the proportion of non-bank deposits [12][16] - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) are critical indicators for banks, and the report provides quantitative assessments of how deposit non-bankization impacts these metrics. The effects are manageable for major banks, with LCR expected to remain above 120% even under significant conversion scenarios [4][34] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Non-Bankization and Liquidity Management - The process of deposit non-bankization is intensifying the demand for banks to manage liquidity indicators more stringently. Since May 2025, the growth rate of personal fixed deposits has been declining, with large banks showing a decrease in monthly increments compared to the same period in 2024 [12][16] - The report quantifies the impact of deposit non-bankization on LCR and NSFR for major banks, indicating that even with a 70% conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits, the LCR for most large banks is expected to remain above 120% [4][34] 2. Liquidity Indicator Management - The management of LCR focuses on maintaining liquidity asset reserves, while NSFR management emphasizes improving the liability structure. Issuing long-term interbank certificates of deposit is highlighted as an effective method to optimize these liquidity indicators [5][22] - The report details how the conversion of personal fixed deposits to non-bank deposits affects various liquidity risk indicators, with specific calculations provided for LCR and NSFR under different conversion scenarios [18][23] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a tiered investment strategy: - Core holdings should focus on large state-owned banks, benefiting from institutions like Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Core allocations should include leading comprehensive banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank - Flexible allocations can target regional banks like Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank [6][19]