聚酯与纺服调研纪要：需求保持韧性

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and although exports are not significantly affected in the near term, the long - term outlook is positive. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year [23]. - In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. Summary by Catalog 1.江阴地区短纤工厂调研情况汇总 1.1 近期内需和销售订单情况 - Short - fiber factories reported that recent domestic demand was generally good. In November, the demand situation was significantly better than in previous years. The market was dominated by rigid - demand purchases, and there was relatively little speculative demand. Differentiated products such as color - spun, cationic, and recycled black silk were in high demand and had tight supply. Enterprises were optimistic about the continuation of this peak season, expecting it to last until December or mid - to - late December [8]. 1.2 近期出口需求情况以及公司海外布局情况 - The export demand of short - fiber enterprises remained stable, with an export proportion generally between 20% - 30%. Main export markets included Europe, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. Short - fiber enterprises were cautious about overseas layout and mainly focused on market expansion. They were confident about next year's exports [9]. 1.3 近期工厂的开工和利润 - Short - fiber factories maintained a high operating rate, basically at full capacity. Current processing profits were generally good, and enterprises optimized cash flow by configuring differentiated products. Some enterprises might be more active in annual long - term contract negotiations or reduce the contract scale [10]. 1.4 当前原料库存情况 - The current raw material inventory of short - fiber factories was relatively stable. The difference mainly came from the procurement model. Some PTA inventories were maintained at 7 - 10 days, and MEG inventories were about 10 days. Raw material procurement was mainly through contracts, with a contract ratio of about 50% - 60% [11]. 1.5 当前成品库存情况 - The overall finished - product inventory was at a low level. Standard product inventories were generally controlled within 7 - 10 days, and some enterprise inventories of certain models dropped to single - digit levels. Non - standard product inventories were relatively high, but the overall pressure was not large [12]. 1.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were relatively optimistic about the short - term market, but had different views on the demand after December. They expected the export market to maintain stable growth next year, but also needed to pay attention to the impact of polyester capacity expansion in regions such as India and Indonesia [14]. 2. 江浙织造、家纺企业调研情况汇总 2.1 近期内需和销售情况 - The recent domestic demand of polyester terminals was differentiated, with clothing performing better than home textiles, knitting better than weaving, and texturing better than fabric - making. The terminal demand was mainly domestic, with good demand for autumn and winter clothing and ammonia - spandex super - soft home clothes, while the demand for traditional home textile categories was relatively weak. Seasonal orders recovered from mid - October to November, but the sustainability of new orders was insufficient [15]. 2.2 近期开工和利润情况 - Most enterprises had a high operating rate for different reasons. In terms of profit, texturing showed a month - on - month recovery, the grey fabric sector was basically at the break - even point, and fabric profits were generally average. Enterprises tried various methods to make up for comprehensive profits [16]. 2.3 近期出口需求情况以及海外布局情况 - After the new tariff negotiation, some foreign trade shipments improved, but there was no surge in textile and clothing exports. Enterprises were actively seeking overseas development opportunities, but overseas projects still faced uncertainties [17]. 2.4 企业当前的原料和库存情况 - Raw material procurement was relatively cautious, mainly spot purchases for immediate use. The raw material inventory cycle was mostly 15 - 30 days, and some enterprises stocked up until mid - November [20]. 2.5 企业当前的成品库存情况 - The inventory levels of enterprises were differentiated. Most enterprises had low physical inventories, significantly lower than during the trade war in the first half of the year. Some enterprises reduced inventory through production cuts and price reductions [21]. 2.6 对未来行情的展望 - Enterprises were cautious about the pre - holiday market and expected to consider early holidays in mid - January to control inventory. In the long term, factors such as intensified domestic competition and tariff policy fluctuations would continue to pressure the industry [22]. 3. 总结与展望 - Domestic demand provides strong short - term support, and exports are expected to improve in the long term. There is still an opportunity for positive demand feedback within the year. The resilience of the terminal is stronger than the market expected. It is not recommended to bet against demand too early [23]. - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation result has not brought obvious export growth, the overall export tariff has dropped to more than 30%, and the long - term tax rate expectation is relatively stable, which is beneficial to exports in the long run [24]. - The fiber sector has high operating rates, low inventories, and neutral profits, and can maintain its operation. In the medium term, there are many new installations, and the supply - demand balance will face pressure in 2026 [23][29]. 4. 附录：调研信息汇总表 - The appendix provides detailed information on the surveyed enterprises, including their general situation, recent operating and profit conditions, domestic demand and sales, export demand, raw material and finished - product inventory, overseas layout, and outlook for future market conditions [35][38]