SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-11-11 15:19Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 32.88 RMB based on a 12x valuation for 2025 [6]. Core Views - The company has a significant cost advantage in oil and gas production, leading to excellent profitability. The average production cost is projected to be 29.56 USD/barrel in 2024, lower than its peers [3]. - The company's capital expenditure (CAPEX) remains high, supporting stable growth in reserves and production. The CAPEX is expected to reach 18.08 billion USD in 2024, nearly double that of ConocoPhillips [4]. - The company has a valuation advantage compared to international oil and gas companies, with its PV-10 valuation significantly lower than most peers [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Cost Advantages in Oil Production - The company has demonstrated a notable reduction in production costs over recent years, with a projected average production cost of 29.56 USD/barrel in 2024, the lowest among China's "Big Three" oil companies [3][17]. - The primary source of cost advantage is operational costs, which have decreased from 10.44 USD/barrel in 2012 to 7.61 USD/barrel in 2024 [26]. 2. Production Structure and CAPEX - The company has shown rapid and stable growth in oil and gas production, with a projected increase from 889 thousand barrels/day in 2012 to 1930 thousand barrels/day in 2024 [36]. - The CAPEX level is industry-leading, with a projected 18.08 billion USD in 2024, significantly higher than its peers [4][61]. - High CAPEX levels contribute to resource reserves and lifespan advantages, supporting long-term production growth [63]. 3. Valuation Advantages - The report anticipates a continued oversupply in the international oil market, with Brent crude prices expected to fluctuate downwards [68]. - The company's valuation metrics, such as PE and EV/EBITDA, are approximately 20%-50% lower than major international oil companies, indicating a valuation advantage [5].