绩优债基的“制胜之道”

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the bond market was impacted by anti - involution trading and the draft for soliciting opinions on the new regulations for fund fees, leading to a significant bear - steep adjustment of the curve. Amid this market adjustment, the report analyzes the "winning strategies" of high - performing bond funds [12]. - Overall, pure bond funds performed poorly in Q3, and the performance gap between high - performing "top students" and the overall was not large. Among high - performing pure bond funds, interest - credit hybrid bond funds performed better. High - performing pure bond funds also underperformed the overall level of hybrid bond funds, while in hybrid bond funds, high - performing funds significantly outperformed the overall [2][15][16]. - High - performing bond funds generally adopted defensive strategies in Q3, including reducing leverage and duration, decreasing bond positions, and making specific choices in bond types, such as increasing convertible bond allocations and avoiding local government bonds, policy - financial bonds, and non - policy financial bonds [3][4][5]. - High - performing bond fund managers generally believe that the bond market in Q4 will still be a situation of mixed long and short factors. The short - end of the curve is supported by stable capital and liquidity, while the long - end may remain volatile. However, they are more optimistic than in Q3, indicating that the allocation value has significantly increased and the upward space for interest rates is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Selection and Overview of High - Performing Bond Fund Samples 1.1 Selection Criteria - The selection criteria for high - performing funds include a fund size of over 100 million yuan, non - amortized cost method and non - fixed - open bond funds, no large - scale redemptions or significant drawdowns, and strong performance. Medium - and long - term pure bond funds are further divided into interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and interest - credit hybrid bond funds based on their holdings [13]. 1.2 Scale and Performance: "Small is Beautiful" for Interest Rate Bond Funds and Interest - Credit Hybrid Bond Funds - In Q3, pure bond funds generally performed poorly. Among high - performing pure bond funds, the average performance returns from high to low were interest - credit hybrid bond funds (0.73%), credit bond funds (0.50%), short - term pure bond funds (0.44%), and interest rate bond funds (0.28%), which were 1.12pcts, 0.69pcts, 0.26pcts, and 1pcts higher than the overall of the same - type funds respectively. High - performing pure bond funds underperformed the overall level of hybrid bond funds. In hybrid bond funds, high - performing funds significantly outperformed the overall, with the average returns of high - performing hybrid first - tier bond funds and second - tier bond funds reaching 2.96% and 8.77% respectively [15][16]. - The performance pressure of pure bond funds led to a decline in scale. Although high - performing bond funds maintained positive growth, the growth rate was limited. Among them, interest - credit hybrid bond funds performed better, while short - term pure bond funds faced the greatest pressure of scale shrinkage. In hybrid funds, the scale of hybrid first - tier bond funds slightly shrank, while that of hybrid second - tier bond funds increased significantly [2][17]. - Among various types of funds, the scales of high - performing interest rate bond funds and interest - credit hybrid bond funds were generally low, usually not exceeding 1 billion yuan, while other types of high - performing bond funds were relatively evenly distributed in different scale ranges [21]. 2. The "Winning Strategies" of High - Performing Bond Funds in Q3 2025 2.1 Leverage and Duration: High - Performing Pure Bond Funds Reduced Leverage and Duration, while High - Performing Hybrid Bond Funds Reduced Leverage and Extended Duration - In Q3, all types of bond funds adopted defensive strategies of reducing leverage and duration. The duration decline from high to low was hybrid first - tier bond funds (from 3.84 years to 2.57 years), credit bond funds (from 3.34 years to 2.38 years), hybrid second - tier bond funds (from 3.55 years to 2.61 years), interest rate bond funds (from 4.59 years to 3.77 years), interest - credit hybrid bond funds (from 4.05 years to 3.41 years), and short - term pure bond funds (from 1.15 years to 0.93 years). The leverage decline from high to low was interest - credit hybrid bond funds (from 112.15% to 107%), credit bond funds (from 117.82% to 114.44%), hybrid second - tier bond funds (from 113.38% to 110.33%), hybrid first - tier bond funds (from 113.22% to 110.42%), short - term pure bond funds (from 113.73% to 111.23%), and interest rate bond funds (from 111.78% to 109.61%) [35]. - High - performing funds were more defensive. Except for high - performing hybrid bond funds whose duration was higher than the overall level, other types of high - performing bond funds adopted more conservative duration and leverage. The duration of high - performing interest - credit hybrid bond funds and interest rate bond funds was 1.59 years and 1.08 years respectively, and the duration of high - performing credit bond funds was only 0.64 years, while the duration of hybrid first - tier and second - tier bond funds reached 4.06 years and 3.33 years respectively. Except for high - performing interest - credit hybrid bond funds whose leverage ratio was only 104%, the leverage ratios of other types of high - performing bond funds were in the range of 106% - 109% [36]. - According to the high - frequency data of bond fund duration, the duration of high - performing bond funds was mostly lower than the overall level, and they were more determined to reduce duration in August [45]. 2.2 Asset Allocation: The Decline in Bond Positions of High - Performing Bond Funds was Generally Higher than the Overall - In Q3, due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, bonds became "weak assets", and all types of bond funds generally significantly reduced their bond positions, with high - performing bond funds having a more significant decline. The proportion of cash positions was differentiated, and most were increased. Except for interest rate bond funds (the average bond position of the overall sample and high - performing sample increased by 0.27pcts and decreased by 1.45pcts respectively compared to Q2 2025), the bond positions of other types of bond funds decreased by more than 3pcts, and the decline of high - performing bond funds was greater. The most significant decline was in interest - credit hybrid bond funds, with the overall sample and high - performing sample decreasing by 8.31pcts to 99.26% and 12.62pcts to 92.39% respectively [48][49]. 2.3 Bond Type Selection: High - Performing Funds Allocated More Convertible Bonds and Generally Avoided Local Government Bonds, Policy - Financial Bonds, and Non - Policy Financial Bonds - In Q3, 10 - year and shorter - term treasury bonds stabilized first in September, while ultra - long bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds continued to decline. Among credit bonds, the decline of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was greater than that of general credit bonds [53]. - High - performing interest rate bond funds were the only type of high - performing funds that held more certificates of deposit and less treasury bonds and credit bonds. High - performing credit bond funds significantly reduced non - policy financial bonds and replaced them with general credit bonds. High - performing interest - credit hybrid bond funds had a higher proportion of convertible bonds and less local government bonds, non - policy financial bonds, and certificates of deposit. High - performing short - term pure bond funds generally reduced their allocations of all types of bonds, especially interest rate bonds and certificates of deposit. High - performing hybrid bond funds had a similar strategy to high - performing interest - credit hybrid bond funds, with a higher proportion of convertible bonds and generally less allocation to other types of pure bonds [5][57][58]. 2.4 How Did High - Performing Bond Fund Managers Describe Their Investment Strategies in the Quarterly Reports? - Defensive and drawdown control became the general consensus of high - performing bond funds in Q3. They generally reduced portfolio duration and leverage, used short - duration and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position to obtain certain coupon income, and some also appropriately reduced bond positions. Many bond funds mentioned using treasury bond futures for hedging to manage duration and interest rate risks [68]. - Using interest rate bonds for band - trading was the main means to increase returns, but overall it was not aggressive. Some funds also mentioned using treasury bond futures, riding strategies, and seizing allocation opportunities near interest rate highs to increase returns [68][69]. 3. How Do High - Performing Bond Fund Managers View the Future Market? - High - performing bond fund managers generally believe that the bond market in Q4 will still be a situation of mixed long and short factors. The short - end of the curve is supported by stable capital and liquidity, while the long - end may remain volatile. However, they are more optimistic than in Q3, indicating that the allocation value has significantly increased and the upward space for interest rates is limited [7].