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美国劳动力市场放缓
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-12 00:44
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are oscillating above $4,100, with signs of bottom - fishing allocation. The end of the US government shutdown and the potential December interest - rate cut will be points of long - short game. Short - term gold will continue to oscillate [2][11]. - The market for stock index futures is in weak oscillation. The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the full release of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have an impact on the market. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. - The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [3][17]. - The performance of US stock index futures is mixed. CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. - The bond market for treasury bond futures lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. - For black metals such as coking coal and coke, the spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][29]. - For agricultural products like edible oils, palm oil needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and rapeseed oil can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. - For red dates, the purchase price in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. - For steel products, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset [35][37]. - For cotton, the price in Brazil has reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. - For live pigs, the fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [43][44]. - For thermal coal, the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. - For polysilicon, it has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [53][54]. - For lead, the industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [56][57]. - For zinc, observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [60]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [66][67]. - For carbon emissions, the short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. - For pulp, the upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. - For container freight rates, it is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US continues to implement the trade negotiation agreement. The global largest gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.3 tons. Gold prices oscillated above $4,100. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy. 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully released. The market is in weak oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The French central bank expects the economy to grow slightly in Q4. The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 403.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 117.7 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November. The market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered to 53.1 bushels per acre. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan increased. The spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean crushing profit decreased. The palm oil market needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and the rapeseed oil market can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile production and sales increased in October. Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese H - shaped hot - rolled steel. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34][35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazilian cotton prices reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Zhongliang Jiajikang's live - pig sales volume increased by 25% in October. The fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [41][44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic thermal coal exists. The coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - CSN's Q3 iron ore sales reached a record high. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Many silicon wafer enterprises reduced prices. Polysilicon has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project is progressing orderly. It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory increased. The industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread increased. Observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to lower the 2026 nickel production target. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports decreased significantly in October. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US sanctions on a Russian oil company may affect European countries' inventory replenishment. Crude oil is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [65][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased. The short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hapag - Lloyd will impose a peak - season surcharge. It is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [71][72].