信用策略随笔：摊余买信用，增多少？持续多久？

Group 1 - The report highlights a new wave of openings for amortized cost bond funds, with a total of approximately 14.3 trillion units and total assets of about 2.06 trillion yuan as of the end of Q3 2025 [1][12][19] - The opening periods for these funds are concentrated in 2022-2023 for those issued in 2019-2020, with another wave expected in 2025-2026 for funds with 3-year and 5-year lock-up periods [1][16][19] - The report indicates that the number of funds issued peaked in 2019-2020, with no new funds issued after 2023, suggesting a stable market environment for existing funds [8][19] Group 2 - Funds with a lock-up period of 1 year or less have increased their allocation to high-quality credit bonds, with their weight in the portfolio rising from 36% at the end of 2023 to 75% by Q3 2025 [2][21] - Funds with a lock-up period of 1-3 years have shown a more pronounced trend of increasing their holdings in high-quality credit bonds, with a 22 percentage point increase from the end of 2024 [2][21] - As of Q3 2025, 25 amortized cost bond funds increased their holdings of high-quality credit bonds by over 5 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024, indicating a strong demand for credit bonds [2][28] Group 3 - It is estimated that over 200 billion yuan of amortized cost bond funds will enter the open period by the end of this year, potentially bringing an additional 100-300 billion yuan into high-quality credit bonds [3][32] - In the first quarter of next year, an estimated 300 billion yuan of funds will also enter the open period, which could lead to an additional 150-500 billion yuan allocated to high-quality credit bonds [3][32] - The report anticipates that the trend of opening funds will continue into 2026 and 2027, further supporting the demand for credit bonds in the market [3][32]