Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal, with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. - For methanol, domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. The weak reality remains, and it's recommended to wait and see as chasing short after a sharp decline has low cost - effectiveness and there is no driving force for long positions [3]. - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see as the price has limited upside and downside space [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.30% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [1]. - Strategy: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait to see OPEC's export price - support willingness and suggest short - term observation [2]. Methanol - Market Quotes: Taicang and Inner Mongolia prices were stable, Lunan increased by 10 yuan, the 01 contract on the disk decreased by 19 yuan to 2082 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 22. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 112 [2]. - Strategy: Domestic production has increased, imports have risen, and supply pressure has grown. Demand is weak, with enterprise and port inventories high. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market Quotes: Shandong's spot price decreased by 10 yuan, Henan and Hubei were stable. The 01 contract on the disk decreased by 20 yuan to 1640 yuan, and the basis was - 30. The 1 - 5 spread was - 5, at - 77 [5]. - Strategy: Prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: Rubber prices rebounded, but the stock market and coking coal, a leading variety, declined. There are different views from bulls and bears. As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.45%. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, increasing by 1.7 tons [10][11][12]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 4572 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 62 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 80.8%, with the calcium carbide method at 81.2% and the ethylene method at 79.7%. Demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.6%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons, and social inventory was 104 tons [14]. - Strategy: The supply is strong and demand is weak, with expected inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are poor, and it's recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [15][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price also decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.37 tons to 17.93 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79% [19]. - Strategy: The BZN spread has room to repair upwards. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [20]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract was 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6865 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 105 yuan/ton, strengthening by 57 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased [22]. - Strategy: The price may remain in low - level consolidation as the cost may have bottomed, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [23]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract was 6429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 101 yuan/ton, strengthening by 51 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, and the weekly inventory of production enterprises and traders increased, while port inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the cost - side supply glut situation changes in the first quarter of next year [26]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX01 contract decreased by 96 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 7 dollars to 821 dollars. The basis was - 50 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 18 yuan. China's PX load was 89.8%, and Asia's was 80.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted. PTA load was 76.4%. In early November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.5 tons, and the inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons [29]. - Strategy: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in November, with valuation at a neutral level and mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [30]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract decreased by 56 yuan to 4648 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan. PTA load was 76.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The social inventory at the end of October was 220.7 tons [31]. - Strategy: It is expected to accumulate inventory in November, with limited processing fees. It may follow PX and crude oil fluctuations, and there may be opportunities for it to strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [30][32]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract decreased by 78 yuan to 3875 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 22 yuan to 3981 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 91 yuan. The supply - side load was 72.4%, and the downstream load was 91.5%. The terminal draw - texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The port inventory was 66.1 tons, an increase of 9.9 tons [33]. - Strategy: It is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, with valuation under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [34].
能源化工日报-20251112
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-12 01:00