有色金属日报-20251112

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the market is boosted by the expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions. The copper price is expected to be supported by the tight supply of refined copper, and it may continue to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [4]. - The supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, combined with low domestic inventories, may drive the aluminum price higher under the backdrop of improved global trade expectations and the implementation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes on the price [6]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively weak. Its price is expected to follow the trend of the aluminum price in the short term [9]. - Due to the continuous decline in lead concentrate TC, high smelting profits, and low downstream demand, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, but remains at a relatively low level. The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - With the continuous decline in zinc concentrate TC, the zinc smelting profit is under pressure, and the inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots has slowed down. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited in the surplus cycle [14]. - The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. - In the short term, the nickel price is dragged down by the high inventory pressure of refined nickel and the weak nickel - iron price. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops significantly [18]. - The lithium carbonate price is supported by strong expectations and is expected to see a new high in demand this month with accelerated inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure at high levels [21]. - Overseas alumina ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers [25]. - The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak oscillating trend, affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [27][28] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market declined, and the copper price oscillated. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 0.32% at $10,840/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,770 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 43,000 tons [3]. Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for the copper price. The short - term copper price may continue to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,750 - 11,000 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price oscillated at a high level. The LME aluminum closed down 0.03% at $2,879/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,740 yuan/ton. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods in three places decreased slightly [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas supply concerns and low domestic inventories may drive the aluminum price higher. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,620 - 21,850 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 2,860 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy adjusted downward. The main AD2601 contract fell 0.31% to 21,040 yuan/ton. The inventory of domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The cost has strong price support, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to follow the trend of the aluminum price in the short term [9]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.33% at 17,444 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $3.5 to $2,050.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly to 33,900 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as the decline in lead concentrate TC, high smelting profits, and low - level downstream demand [12]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.01% at 22,692 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell $5.5 to $3,072.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 159,600 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited in the surplus cycle due to factors such as the decline in zinc concentrate TC and the slowdown of inventory accumulation [14]. Tin Market Information - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed up 0.57% at 288,180 yuan/ton. The supply is tight due to the slow resumption of production in Myanmar and the seasonal maintenance of domestic smelters. The demand from emerging fields provides support for the tin price [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 dollars/ton [16][17] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price oscillated at a low level. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed down 0.25% at 119,290 yuan/ton. The nickel - iron price continued to decline [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the short term, the nickel price is dragged down by high inventory pressure and weak nickel - iron price. In the long term, it is supported by the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops significantly. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed up 1.62% at 86,043 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed down 0.80% at 86,540 yuan [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate price is supported by strong expectations, and the demand is expected to reach a new high this month with accelerated inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure at high levels. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 85,000 - 89,800 yuan/ton [21][22] Alumina Market Information - On November 11, 2025, the alumina index closed down 0.39% at 2,835 yuan/ton. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was 45 yuan/ton [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas alumina ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [25] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed down 1.11% at 12,465 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,034,000 tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [27]. Strategy Viewpoints - The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak oscillating trend, affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [27][28]