General Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different asset classes, it offers specific short - term investment suggestions: - For stocks and bonds, short - term cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, different sectors have different suggestions, including cautious long, cautious short, and cautious observation [3]. Core Views - Overseas, the US labor market shows signs of deterioration, the dollar index is falling, but the potential end of the long - term shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth has slowed in October, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity and boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Market Conditions: Overseas, the ADP predicts a decline in US private - sector jobs, the dollar index is falling, and the potential end of the shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing and export data in October are weak, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity [3]. - Investment Suggestions: Stocks and bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions. For commodities, black metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some other sectors are in short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical sectors are in short - term shock, with cautious observation [3]. Stocks - Market Conditions: Affected by sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and insurance, the domestic stock market has declined slightly. China's economic growth has slowed, but inflation data has recovered, and policies have boosted risk appetite [4]. - Investment Suggestions: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions [4]. Precious Metals - Market Conditions: The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. The expectation of the US government ending the shutdown and potential Fed rate cuts has boosted prices. Spot gold has reached a high since October 23 [4]. - Investment Suggestions: Precious metals are in short - term shock and rebound, with a long - term upward trend. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals - Steel: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices continued to fluctuate. The change in coking coal supply expectations and the decline in coking coal prices have led to a weakening of the steel market. Demand is weak, and supply has decreased. The short - term market may continue to weaken, but the decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited [7]. - Iron Ore: Futures and spot prices weakened slightly on Tuesday. Steel mills' losses have accelerated production cuts, and iron ore demand may further decline. Supply has decreased, but port inventories have increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices weakened slightly. Steel production has declined, reducing ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are firm, and supply has decreased slightly. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a high level, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic de - stocking is less than expected, but the shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. - Aluminum: On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum declined slightly. The market is worried about future supply shortages, but domestic de - stocking is difficult. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be a significant correction later [10]. - Tin: The supply of tin is still tight, and the demand is weak. Tin ingot inventories have increased. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to be supported at the bottom but pressured at the top, with high - level fluctuations [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the lithium carbonate futures contract rose on Tuesday. The market has digested negative news, and the demand logic is dominant. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need attention [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the industrial silicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended [12]. - Polysilicon: The price of the polysilicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weakness of the crude oil market is offset by the high premium of refined oil products. Supply concerns and technical buying support the price. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. - Asphalt: Asphalt has rebounded slightly following crude oil, but the rebound space is limited. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and supply pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - PX: PX has weakened slightly. PTA's high - level operation provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. Attention should be paid to cost changes [16]. - PTA: The expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has decreased, but the actual production cut is not highly confirmed, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol has declined again and is still under pressure. Port inventories have increased significantly, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in mid - to - late November [16]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber has declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still pressure in the later period. The follow - up upward space may be limited [17]. - Methanol: The methanol market has weakened. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to decline with fluctuations, but the decline rate may slow down [17][18]. - PP: The price of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline. Demand improvement is limited, and supply is increasing. Cost support is insufficient [18]. - LLDPE: The price of polyethylene is expected to continue to be under pressure. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and cost support is insufficient [19]. - Urea: The urea market is stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to continue to weaken slightly [19]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean price has declined. The market is optimistic about Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to USDA reports. If the USDA lowers the yield per unit, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - repair logic [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the improvement of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, and the risk of future shortages has decreased. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [20]. - Oils: Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the market is weak and stable. The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is still unbalanced, and the price is stable within a range. Rapeseed oil inventories are decreasing, and the basis is strengthening [22]. - Corn: The futures price has risen continuously, driving up the price in the Northeast production area. Inventories are low, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [22]. - Pigs: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. Demand has increased with the cooling weather. The pork price is expected to be weak and stable, and the futures price may be supported [22].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20251112
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-11-12 01:43