中信期货晨报：国内商品期市涨跌参半，贵金属板块涨幅居前-20251112

1. Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and large - scale assets lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so large - scale assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation in large - scale assets in the fourth quarter, hold long positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. In case of a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there seems to be a short - term tight situation in US dollar liquidity, it will not have a significant impact on the prices of large - scale assets. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7]. - Domestic Macro: In October, China's export volume growth year - on - year was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the inflation data for October. In addition, there is a possibility that the consumption data for October may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - Asset Views: As mentioned above, large - scale assets may enter a shock period in the short term, but the overall fourth - quarter allocation idea remains unchanged, and the macro environment is favorable for risk assets [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Summary 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. However, there is a problem of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Key points to watch include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Key points to watch include the performance of the US fundamentals, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the trend of the global equity market. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is pressure on loading, lacking upward drivers. Key points to watch include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: In the off - season of demand, the market is under pressure, and the price on the disk has fallen from a high level. Key points to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and hot metal production. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Iron Ore: The pressure of inventory accumulation has been released in advance, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. Key points to watch include the production and shipment of overseas mines, domestic hot metal production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is being proposed. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Coking Coal: Domestic supply is difficult to increase, and the sentiment in the spot market remains strong. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Silicon Iron: Cost support remains strong, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. Key points to watch include raw material costs and steel procurement situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Manganese Silicon: Cost support still exists, but there is pressure on the upper side of the disk. Key points to watch include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Glass: Production cuts in Shahe have been implemented, but demand remains weak. Key points to watch include spot production and sales. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Soda Ash: Cost support has strengthened, and light soda ash has shown a short - term recovery. Key points to watch include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price has adjusted in the short term. Key points to watch include supply disruptions, better - than - expected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still one of over - supply, and the alumina price is under pressure and in a shock state. Key points to watch include less - than - expected ore复产, better - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产, and extreme market trends. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Aluminum: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is rising in a shock manner. Key points to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - Zinc: The export window has opened, and the zinc price is in a high - level shock state. Key points to watch include macro - turning risks and better - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Lead: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Stainless Steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless steel market on the disk is in a shock state. Key points to watch include Indonesian policy risks and better - than - expected demand growth. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and better - than - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The expected复产 is uncertain, and attention should be paid to significant price fluctuations. Key points to watch include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil: There is a lack of short - term driving factors, and the market continues to be in a shock state. Key points to watch include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - LPG: The external release of refineries has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Key points to watch include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the asphalt futures price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include geopolitical factors and crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may show a strong - upward shock trend. Key points to watch include crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [10]. - Methanol: The high - inventory reality suppresses the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - energy and overseas dynamics [10]. - Urea: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions have become more cautious. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is a game between downward supply - demand and cost support. The short - term market is in a low - level range and under obvious upward pressure. Key points to watch include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - PX: There are rumors of some factories reducing the load of disproportionation, which has affected market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - PTA: Driven by the upstream, the price center has moved up, and there is no unexpected reduction in supply. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - Short - Fiber: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and processing fees are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - Bottle Chips: It follows the raw material price increase passively. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning situations [10]. - Propylene: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - PP: The production volume remains at a relatively high level, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - Plastic: The downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - Styrene: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the styrene market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - PVC: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - Caustic Soda: The market is in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state, and the caustic soda price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Sector - Oils and Fats: Rapeseed oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The far - month contracts have made up for the increase, and the monthly spread has narrowed. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: Downstream procurement and upstream hoarding have led to an upward breakthrough in futures prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Pigs: The monthly slaughter volume is sufficient, and the pig price is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Natural Rubber: It has rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - Cotton: The price is fluctuating in a narrow range and in a shock state. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: It has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include imports and Brazilian production [10]. - Pulp: The futures market has driven the spot market, and the market is dominated by disk funds. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - Double - Glued Paper: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics [10]. - Logs: Domestic timber has been delivered successively, and the log market on the disk is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].