棕榈油：短期暂企稳，反弹高度有限，豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕继续做扩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has temporarily stabilized in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [1] - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil continues to widen [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Trading Volume - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,770 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,734 yuan/ton with a -0.41% decrease. Trading volume is 505,832 hands with a decrease of 24,977 hands, and the position is 418,681 hands with a decrease of 5,435 hands [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,238 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase; closing price (night session) is 8,248 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. Trading volume is 274,118 hands with an increase of 22,215 hands, and the position is 445,960 hands with a decrease of 16,501 hands [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,775 yuan/ton with a 1.96% increase; closing price (night session) is 9,782 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. Trading volume is 248,320 hands with an increase of 90,320 hands, and the position is 217,894 hands with an increase of 8,918 hands [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 4,139 ringgit/ton with a 0.68% increase; closing price (night session) is 4,150 ringgit/ton with a 0.31% increase [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 51.04 cents/pound with a 0.91% increase [1] - Spot Prices - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: 8,610 yuan/ton with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: 8,600 yuan/ton with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: 10,130 yuan/ton with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): 1,035 US dollars/ton with no price change [1] - Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): - 160 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): 362 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): 355 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spreads - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,005 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 897 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 532 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 462 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: - 84 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 102 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 212 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 230 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 426 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 413 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month - on - month decrease in export volume, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November, and production is expected to decline by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [2] - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [3][4] - As of November 10, 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [4] - Analysts' average forecast for the global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is 124.21 million tons, with a forecast range between 122.5 - 126 million tons, and the USDA previously estimated it at 123.99 million tons in September [4] - Analysts' average forecast for the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 4.266 billion bushels, with a forecast range between 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average forecast for the US soybean yield per acre is 53.1 bushels/acre, with a forecast range between 51.7 - 54.0 bushels/acre; the average forecast for the US soybean ending inventory is 304 million bushels, with a forecast range between 187 - 494 million bushels. The USDA previously estimated the production at 4.301 billion bushels, the yield per acre at 53.5 bushels/acre, and the ending inventory at 300 million bushels in September [5] - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons, higher than the previous week's 3.77 million tons; and soybean meal exports to be 2.47 million tons, higher than the previous week's 2.23 million tons [5] - In the first week of November, Brazil exported 1,177,456.20 tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 235,491.24 tons, a 75% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 134,370.20 tons in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2,553,033.89 tons [5] - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state was 459.16 reais/ton, compared to 502.44 reais/ton in the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1,571.62 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,393.68 reais/ton [6] - As of November 9, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.01 million tons, compared to 1.24 million tons in the same period last year; soybean imports reached 4.15 million tons, compared to 4.97 million tons in the same period last year; and rapeseed imports totaled 1.31 million tons, compared to 2.30 million tons in the same period last year [6] - The EU countries hope to postpone the implementation of the zero - deforestation bill by one year to December 2026 and are ready to conduct rapid consultations on adjustments before the bill takes effect next month [6] - The German rapeseed industry association expects the winter rapeseed planting area in Germany in 2026 to be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, with little change compared to 1.1 million hectares in 2025 [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [7]