沥青：委内局势重升温

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On November 12, 2025, BU2512 closed at 3,051 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.56% and a night - session closing price of 3,065 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase; BU2601 closed at 3,050 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase and a night - session closing price of 3,062 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase. The trading volume of BU2512 was 10,113 lots, a decrease of 2,857 lots, and the open interest was 20,360 lots, a decrease of 1,092 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 252,208 lots, a decrease of 7,506 lots, and the open interest was 193,828 lots, a decrease of 14,840 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 7,690 lots with no change [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 12) was - 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was - 340, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 0 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,126 yuan/ton and 3,266 yuan/ton respectively. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse and warehouse spot equivalent prices on the futures market were 3,357 yuan/ton and 3,417 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 10, the refinery operating rate was 33.50%, a decrease of 0.36% compared to November 6; the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, an increase of 0.60% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [8]. 3.3 Market Information - Production: In the week from November 4 to November 10, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 525,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.8% compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.2% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to November was 27.156 million tons, an increase of 3.107 million tons or 12.9% year - on - year [14]. - Inventory: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 688,000 tons, an increase of 0.4% compared to November 6. The inventory in Shandong increased significantly due to weakening terminal demand and the preference of industry players to clear social inventories first. The total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.167 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% compared to November 6. The social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly, supported by rush - work demand and the approach of the seasonal off - season [14].