烧碱：震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market will mainly fluctuate. The pattern of high production and high inventory in the caustic soda industry continues, and the market is continuously shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation, and in the long - term, the alumina production reduction problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain. The rebound space of caustic soda is limited without production cuts by manufacturers [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2357, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 81 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, on November 11, the trading in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market was poor. The prices of some enterprises with increasing inventories continued to decline. Although there were orders signed from other provinces, the support was expected to be limited [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market is shorting the chlor - alkali profit. From the demand side, the impact of the alumina production start - up and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited under high - start - up conditions. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The cost increase of caustic soda due to the price drop of liquid chlorine can only lead to the repair of low - level valuation, and the rebound space of caustic soda is limited without production cuts by manufacturers. In the long - term, the alumina production reduction problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain. The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [3]