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文字早评2025-11-12：宏观金融类-20251112
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-12 02:09
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have seen rapid rotation, with the technology - growth sector remaining the market's main theme. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage, it is advisable to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - The short - term trend of copper prices is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while aluminum prices may rise further. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term [13][15][17][20][22]. - The short - term trend of tin prices is expected to be strong and volatile. The price of lithium carbonate may see high - level selling pressure. Alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [24][27][29][32][34]. - Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term but may see a demand inflection point in the future. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term. Glass prices are expected to remain weak, and soda ash prices may continue to fluctuate [38][40][42][44]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short. Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [48][51][53]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and other chemical products are generally recommended to be observed [59][62][63][64]. - For agricultural products, the general strategy for hogs is to go short on rebounds, eggs are expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term, and soybean meal is recommended to be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term. The trend of oils and fats depends on the export and production of palm oil, and sugar is recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [83][85][87][90][92][96]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - Market Information: The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the financial market, and Mexico has postponed the plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. SoftBank has sold all its Nvidia shares worth $5.83 billion [2]. - Strategy View: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and the technology - growth sector is the main theme. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The main contracts of treasury bonds showed different changes. The 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, and the US Senate has passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown. The central bank conducted a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: The CPI in October exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver showed different trends. The US non - farm payroll data could not be released normally, and the US government shutdown problem is likely to be resolved, which will improve market liquidity [8]. - Strategy View: The market prices a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December. It is advisable to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for gold and silver contracts are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - Market Information: Domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic warehouse inventories decreased, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The expected reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, and copper prices may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China narrowed [14]. - Strategy View: Overseas supply concerns and expected improvement in domestic exports may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to changes in domestic inventories [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are provided, and the import loss of zinc ingots was - 4957.57 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy View: Zinc concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to tighten marginally. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [18][19]. - Strategy View: Lead concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of lead is expected to be tight in the near - term. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [21]. - Strategy View: The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider going long if the price drops sufficiently [22]. 3.2.6 Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [23]. - Strategy View: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in tight balance, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips [24]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly [26]. - Strategy View: The demand is expected to reach a new high this month, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [27]. 3.2.8 Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices decreased slightly. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase [28]. - Strategy View: The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [29]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices decreased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The inventory is being released, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [30][31]. - Strategy View: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weak in the short - term due to supply - demand imbalance [32]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Cast aluminum alloy prices decreased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - Strategy View: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [34]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - Strategy View: Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, but demand may improve in the future [38]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices decreased slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand from steel mills weakened. The port inventory increased [39]. - Strategy View: The supply of iron ore is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to weaken. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [40]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of glass decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased [41][43]. - Strategy View: The glass market lacks fundamental support and is expected to remain weak. The soda ash market is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [42][44]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The market is affected by macro and fundamental factors [45]. - Strategy View: The price trend is affected by macro events. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short [47][48]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease in the future [50][52]. - Strategy View: Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [51][53]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rebounded. The opening rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the inventory increased [55][57]. - Strategy View: A neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions [59]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market Information: The prices of crude oil and related refined products decreased. The inventory of refined products in Fujeirah Port increased [60]. - Strategy View: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [62]. 3.4.3 Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, leading to an increase in inventory [63]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [63]. 3.4.4 Urea - Market Information: The price of urea decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [64]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of urea is in a relatively loose pattern, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [64]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply and demand showed different trends [65]. - Strategy View: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily due to inventory reduction, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair [67]. 3.4.6 PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of PVC is imbalanced, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [69]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [70]. - Strategy View: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [71]. 3.4.8 PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable, and the inventory is expected to increase [72]. - Strategy View: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the processing fee is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN [73]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of p - xylene decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [74]. - Strategy View: The supply of p - xylene is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [75]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [76]. - Strategy View: The price of PE is expected to remain low and volatile due to factors such as inventory and demand [78]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP decreased. The supply is expected to be under pressure, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally [79]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [80]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Hogs - Market Information: Hog prices were weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was not improved [82]. - Strategy View: The future supply of hogs is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short - term, there may be a rebound [83]. 3.5.2 Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. The supply was stable, and the demand was general [84]. - Strategy View: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term. It is recommended to observe or trade short - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The price of CBOT soybeans was stable. The domestic soybean inventory was at a high level, and the demand for soybean meal was weak [86]. - Strategy View: The import cost of soybeans fluctuates, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - Market Information: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production showed different trends. The US Department of Agriculture will release a report [88]. - Strategy View: The supply of palm oil is expected to be large, and the price trend depends on production and export. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar fluctuated. India has allowed sugar exports, and the opening of sugar mills in China has different situations [91]. - Strategy View: The import control of syrup and premix has driven up the price of sugar, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton fluctuated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [93]. - Strategy View: The cotton market lacks strong driving factors, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [96].