棉花：缺乏上涨驱动，期价区间震荡

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks upward momentum, and cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on Friday [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session close of 13,535 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decline. CY2601 closed at 19,855 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily decline and 19,820 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% decline. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 63.93 cents/pound with a 0.64% decline. Trading volumes of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased by 115,823 and 1,999 hands respectively compared to the previous day, while their positions increased by 8,762 and 1,045 hands respectively [1]. - Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 325 to 3,619, and the effective forecast decreased by 237 to 1,154. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19, and the effective forecast increased by 7 to 12 [1]. - Spot Prices: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,534 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,458 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan or 0.14%. The 3128B index was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.73 cents/pound, up 1 cent or 1.22% [1]. - Price Spreads: The CF1 - 5 spread was 0, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading showed little change, with overall performance being average, and the spot basis remained stable. Different regions in Xinjiang had different sales basis prices [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The cotton yarn market was lukewarm, with 40 - count yarn having better sales. Due to the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs, traceability orders improved. Spinning mills had high operating intentions due to good cash flow. Cotton yarn prices mostly remained stable, and there was a differentiation in the sales of cotton grey cloth [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and both the international market and US cotton itself lacked upward drivers, so the ICE cotton futures remained in a low - level oscillation [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].