宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月12日）-20251112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the agricultural products futures in the commodity market is that most varieties are in a state of oscillation. The short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are mainly oscillatory, with different intraday trends of oscillatory weakness or strength [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is oscillatory weakness, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory weakness [5]. - Core Logic: The soybean market continues the high - level oscillation pattern. On one hand, the domestic soybean meal inventory has significantly decreased to 969,000 tons, a nearly 20% decrease compared to the previous period, which eases the supply pressure and supports the price. On the other hand, feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly fulfilling contracts, the spot price has difficulty rising, and the weakening of rapeseed meal drags down the market. The CBOT soybeans lack a clear direction in the international market, waiting for China's procurement demand and USDA report guidance. Short - term funds enter and exit frequently, increasing the volatility of futures prices at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillatory strength [7]. - Core Logic: After the bearish expectations of the Malaysian palm oil report are fulfilled, the pressure on the rebound of palm oil futures prices is reduced. The end of the US government shutdown and the expected implementation of the bio - diesel policy inject optimistic sentiment into the market. The palm oil price gradually stops falling and stabilizes, and is expected to run with short - term oscillatory strength [7]. Other Varieties (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil in 2601 Contract) - Soybean Oil 2601: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory, with an intraday and reference view of oscillatory strength. The influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - Palm 2601: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillatory, with an intraday and reference view of oscillatory strength. The influencing factors include the bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].