尿素：估值区间内运行，短期承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Urea is expected to trade within the valuation range and face short - term pressure in the market [1] - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner, with the overall upward trend of spot prices expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts putting pressure on the upside of futures prices [3][4] - The domestic urea fundamental pressure is relatively large, but the downward driving force is weakened under the policy regulation. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,648 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume was 142,319 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 254,022 lots, down 3,552 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,812 tons, up 397 tons; the trading volume was 468.992 million yuan, down 110.461 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 30, up 10; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 140, up 20; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was - 30, up 20; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 77, down 5 [2] - Spot Market: The factory prices of urea in many enterprises remained unchanged, and the trading price of dealers in Shandong area was 1,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points, and the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [2] 2. Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. The inventory of some enterprises increased due to factors such as market sentiment and environmental protection warnings, while the inventory of some enterprises decreased [3] 3. Futures Research - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]