五矿期货农产品早报-20251112

Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 12, 2025, covering market information and strategy views on soybeans, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs [1][2] Market Information Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Overnight CBOT soybeans were basically stable, and the market awaited the USDA monthly report. Brazilian soybean premiums fell slightly on Tuesday, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the price in East China at 2,990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick-up was good. Chinese ports' soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons last week due to large arrivals and a decline in the operating rate. MYSTEEL estimated that soybean crushing volume at oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, up from 1.8057 million tons last week [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern soybean-producing areas of Brazil will be uneven and scarce, while other areas will be normal. As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 61% of the expected level, compared with 67% at the same time last year. ANEC predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 426,000 tons, up from 377,000 tons the previous week [2] Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first five days of November increased by 6.8% month-on-month, and production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. - The US Department of Agriculture will release monthly supply and demand estimates on November 14, providing yield data for grain and oilseed futures. - An Indonesian energy ministry official said that as of November 10, the country's biodiesel consumption this year had reached 12.25 million kiloliters, using FAME as raw material. The Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025. - Domestic oils rebounded slightly on Tuesday. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October exceeded expectations, and high-frequency data showed a slight decline in exports and a slight decrease in production in the first 10 days of November. Domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6] Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. The closing price of the January contract was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.09% from the previous trading day. - Guangxi sugar - making groups had no offer for old sugar. Yunnan sugar - making groups' offers were between 5,530 - 5,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream offer range for processed sugar mills was 5,770 - 5,880 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - India's food minister said that the central government had decided to allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. According to Mutian Technology, sugar mills in Guangxi are expected to start operation as early as November 15, 7 days later than last year. As of November 9, 2025, 3 sugar mills in Yunnan had started operation in the 2025/26 season, 1 more than last year [11] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. The closing price of the January contract was 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15% from the previous trading day. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The basis between CCIndex 3128B and the main cotton contract (CF2601) was 1,282 yuan/ton. - As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, 6.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 8.64 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 74.04%. - On November 10, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.25 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 6.94 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day [14] Eggs - The national egg price was mostly stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, farmers sold eggs as usual, market demand was average, and downstream traders' purchasing intention weakened. It is expected that today's egg price will be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others [17] Hogs - Domestic hog prices were half stable and half falling yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.21 yuan to 11.98 yuan/kg, the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 11.53 yuan/kg, and the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged at 11.59 yuan/kg. Farmers were eager to sell hogs, supply was sufficient, demand showed no obvious improvement, trading was average, and today's hog prices will continue to be weak [21] Strategy Views Soybean Meal - Import costs are expected to fluctuate. China's soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal prices will rise in the short term following import costs, and crushing margins will recover, stimulating purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rallies [4] Oils - The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market. The recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides support, and its sustainability should be observed. The current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. The strategy is to view the market as range - bound and turn bullish if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar - The recent strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market remains weak. Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded last year's due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upside for raw sugar is limited, and import profits have reached a five - year high. The strategy is to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [12] Cotton - Fundamentally, downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain is significantly lower than in previous years. There is also significant selling pressure from hedging due to a domestic bumper harvest this year. However, the previous decline in the futures market has digested some negative factors, and there is currently no strong driving force for the market. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [15] Eggs - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in egg - laying hen inventories. After the temperature drops, hoarding sentiment has increased, breaking the previous downward spiral of egg prices. With subsequent consumption themes such as the Double Eleven shopping festival and pre - holiday stocking, improved sentiment is expected to drive inventory accumulation in the market. The futures market has anticipated price increases in advance, but with a premium over the spot market, bulls are generally cautious, and the expectation of high supply still exists. It is expected that egg prices will be relatively strong in the short term, and the strategy is to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for short - selling opportunities [19] Hogs - The recent rebound in hog prices was mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply generated by these factors, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, will create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large hog weights before the Spring Festival. With an oversupply, the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies. However, the current situation of low prices and high open interest has created a game - like market, and there may be a short - term rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, the recommended strategy is to first engage in reverse arbitrage and then wait for rallies to sell short [22]